14 yo modell

Key Takeaways from the Airbnb IPO Filing

2020.11.27 01:38 tadhg8811 Key Takeaways from the Airbnb IPO Filing

Hi everyone,
I work as a PM at a large tech company and as part of my job it's important for me to understand major technology trends and tech companies. I put this post together to share some key takeaways I had from looking at Airbnb's S-1 filing. Let me know what you think.
On Monday November 16th, Airbnb filed to go public. While a target IPO price has not yet been set, Airbnb looks to be aiming to raise about $3 billion dollars at an analyst-estimated valuation of $30 billion. This is up from Airbnb's most recent valuation of $18.1 billion in April of this year when it raised a total of $2 billion in debt to cope with the Covid-19 crisis.
Airbnb is a remarkable company. What started in 2007 as 2 friends renting out airbeds in their apartment to attendees of a conference has, 13 years later, grown into a company operating in 220 countries with over 4 million hosts who have cumulatively earned over $110 billion. In 2019, there were 327 million nights and experiences booked on Airbnb. Nobody could have predicted those numbers in 2007. Airbnb has defined a brand new travel category and become a standard part of our vocabulary, much like Zoom. As they state in their S-1:
" “Airbnb” has become synonymous with one-of-a-kind travel on a global scale."
But, while Airbnb is clearly a remarkable company, is it a good investment? That’s the question that this post aims to answer. Here are some key takeaways from an analysis of Airbnb’s recent S-1 filing:
(Note: In case you’re wondering, an S-1 is the document that a companies files with the SEC when they plan to go public)
1. Airbnb is a resilient business
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on Airbnb’s business. Gross booking value (GBV) in March was down 127%. Due to cancellations and alterations, Airbnb actually lost money on bookings in March. However by August, GBV was only down 14% when compared to August 2019. This impressive recovery shows how strong Airbnb’s business is.
For the 9 months ending September 2020, Airbnb posted a revenue drop of 32% when compared with the first 9 months of 2019. While this is a concern, the cut to sales and marketing expenditure at the same time points to a business that is quite resilient - In the same time period that revenue dropped by 32%, Airbnb cut its sales and marketing spend by a massive 54%. The ability to cut sales and marketing spend by over half while only having a revenue drop of 32% (in the middle of a pandemic) points to a business that is highly resilient with strong brand and customer loyalty.
2. Post-Covid travel patterns may benefit Airbnb
If we compare the gross nights and experiences booked on Airbnb to Airbnb’s gross booking value (GBV), we see an interesting pattern. Gross bookings in August are down 28% YoY while GBV is only down 14%. This means that the average spend on an individual booking has actually trended up this year! To further validate this point, long-term stays were down only 13% this year, compared to 81% for short-term stays. There was actually YoY growth for long-term stays from May to September. The importance of long-term stays is highlighted by the quote below:
“We believe the long-term stays category represents a different use case than leisure travel, and as a result, was not as impacted as dramatically by COVID-19.”
Long-term stays are a distinct competitive advantage for Airbnb and if trends continue they could drive a lot of long-term growth.
Airbnb has also highlighted a number of other categories that have performed particularly well this year. In particular, ‘domestic travel’, ‘short-distance travel’ and ‘travel outside top 20 cities’ have performed very well. For example, short-distance travel grew a whopping 38% YoY in September.
No doubt these trends will reverse somewhat as we exit the pandemic. However, it is unlikely they will reverse fully. If these trends maintain decent momentum, they represent a shift in travel patterns that uniquely benefits Airbnb and provides a significant competitive advantage.
3. Strong customer retention and brand loyalty
One of the most striking figures from the S-1 is that 91% of Airbnb’s traffic is organic, coming from direct and unpaid channels. This is very impressive. Airbnb has built an incredible brand and clearly has strong brand loyalty.
“Our strategy is to increase brand marketing and use the strength of our brand to attract more guests via direct or unpaid channels and to decrease our performance marketing spend relative to 2019.”
Customer engagement and retention are also impressively high on the platform. In 2019, 68% of guests left a review of their stay. 69% of revenue generate in 2019 was from repeat guests.
Airbnb also has very strong retention among their host community. In 2019, 84% of revenue came from people who had hosted in 2018. This shows that the majority of hosts are staying on the platform and continuing to earn money through Airbnb.
4. International expansion is a big opportunity
Airbnb’s revenue growth has slowed over the last three years. It grew by 32% in 2019, down from 43% in 2018. While slowed growth is never great, 32% is quite healthy.
It remains to be seen what the impacts of Covid-19 will be on growth over the next few years. However, there seem to be big opportunities for international expansion which would allow Airbnb to maintain (and possibly improve) its growth rate.
Airbnb believes that its total addressable market is a whopping $3.4 trillion. While you can always take these predictions with a grain of salt, it is clear that Airbnb believes that a big part of this market opportunity lies outside the US and Europe. They highlight international expansion as a key part of their long-term growth strategy:
Expand our global network. We plan to expand our global network in the countries in which we already have a deep presence, as well as to expand into markets where our penetration is lower, such as India, China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and tens of thousands of smaller markets and remote areas around the world.”
There are some encouraging signs that Airbnb has the potential to grow their international markets. They operate in 220 countries and importantly, 86% of their hosts are outside the US. International markets have also seen an increase in GBV and average nights per booking. In fact, Latin America has the highest average nights per booking of any region, at 4.1 nights. (North America is 3.7)
The strong customer loyalty previously mentioned, significant host presence in international markets (86%) and changing consumption patterns towards longer stays means that Airbnb has the potential to unlock a lot of value as they focus on international markets.
5. Regulation is a big concern
Regulation is a big risk for Airbnb. 70% of the company’s top 200 largest cities (by revenue) have implemented some form of regulation on short-term stays. For example, London has put a 90 nights per year limit on short term stays for properties without specific planning permission to do so.
Airbnb make it clear in the S-1 that the evolving regulatory situation is a cause for concern:
“We are subject to a wide variety of complex, evolving, and sometimes inconsistent and ambiguous laws and regulations that may adversely impact our operations and discourage hosts and guests from using our platform, and that could cause us to incur significant liabilities including fines and criminal penalties, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.”
Airbnb makes sure to point out that they are not dependant on any one city, region or country. For example, the US is the only country that represents over 10% of Airbnb’s revenue. While this may be true, the evolving regulatory environment does not seem to be going in Airbnb’s favour.
Investment Plan
Please note that this is just an explanation of investing decisions for my personal portfolio and not a recommendation to anyone to buy/sell any stock.
To make a decision on whether or not to invest in Airbnb, I believe there are 3 important questions to answer:
  1. Does Airbnb have good upside potential?
  2. What year should conclusions be based on?
  3. What is a fair valuation?
1. Does Airbnb have good upside potential?
Although there are regulatory concerns, based on the above analysis I believe that Airbnb has strong upside potential.
2. What year should conclusions be based on?
The Airbnb S-1 is primarily focused on 2019 numbers. Airbnb believes that 2019 figures are the fairest reflection of the strength of the business. They believe that 2020 is a highly irregular year and that the company will rebound quickly post-covid. Investors should come up with their own conclusion on that but I agree with Airbnb that 2019 is a fair reflection of the business.
3. What is a fair valuation for Airbnb?
This is where things get tricky. In some ways, Airbnb doesn’t have any direct competitors to compare against. They are similar to both OTAs (online travel agents) and hotel chains like Hilton but obviously quite different in a number of ways too.
In my opinion, an interesting comparison is with Uber. While not exactly the same, Airbnb and Uber have a lot of similarities. They are both semi-marketplaces (Airbnb is closer to a true marketplace). Uber connects drivers with riders while Airbnb connects hosts with guests. They have a similar business model in that they both take a % of each transaction on their platform.
Obviously there are quite a few differences. In particular, Uber drivers are far more commoditised than Airbnb hosts. Uber also has more direct competition (Lyft).
Looking at 2019 figures for the fairest comparison, Uber is currently priced at roughly 6.33 times 2019 revenue. If we go with the analyst expected valuation of $30 billion, Airbnb would be valued at roughly 6 times 2019 revenue. Uber grew revenue 26% YoY in 2019 while Airbnb grew 32%.
With all of this in mind and particularly considering that Uber’s model is less defensible, I believe that the analyst-estimated $30 billion valuation represents a very good price for Airbnb.
What’s my plan?
My plan is to wait and see what happens on IPO day. If analysts are wrong and the stock pops above $40/50 billion, I won’t be purchasing and will wait to see what Airbnb’s performance is like over the next few months. If the stock settles at or below $30 billion, then I will definitely be adding it to my portfolio.
What’s your plan?
If you liked this post, I've just started a newsletter with similar content that you can find here.
Are you considering investing in Airbnb? What did you think of my analysis above? Anything I missed? Let me know your thoughts.
submitted by tadhg8811 to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]


2020.11.27 01:32 tadhg8811 Key Takeaways from the Airbnb IPO filing

Hi everyone,
I work as a PM at a large tech company and as part of my job it's important for me to understand major technology trends and tech companies. I put this post together to share some key takeaways I had from looking at Airbnb's S-1 filing. If you found this post valuable and would like to read more please let me know. I'm thinking about writing like this more often if it's something people get value from. Thanks
On Monday November 16th, Airbnb filed to go public. While a target IPO price has not yet been set, Airbnb looks to be aiming to raise about $3 billion dollars at an analyst-estimated valuation of $30 billion. This is up from Airbnb's most recent valuation of $18.1 billion in April of this year when it raised a total of $2 billion in debt to cope with the Covid-19 crisis.
Airbnb is a remarkable company. What started in 2007 as 2 friends renting out airbeds in their apartment to attendees of a conference has, 13 years later, grown into a company operating in 220 countries with over 4 million hosts who have cumulatively earned over $110 billion. In 2019, there were 327 million nights and experiences booked on Airbnb. Nobody could have predicted those numbers in 2007. Airbnb has defined a brand new travel category and become a standard part of our vocabulary, much like Zoom. As they state in their S-1:
" “Airbnb” has become synonymous with one-of-a-kind travel on a global scale."
But, while Airbnb is clearly a remarkable company, is it a good investment? That’s the question that this post aims to answer. Here are some key takeaways from an analysis of Airbnb’s recent S-1 filing:
(*Note: In case you’re wondering, an S-1 is the document that a companies files with the SEC when they plan to go public)
  1. Airbnb is a resilient business
The Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on Airbnb’s business. Gross booking value (GBV) in March was down 127%. Due to cancellations and alterations, Airbnb actually lost money on bookings in March. However by August, GBV was only down 14% when compared to August 2019. This impressive recovery shows how strong Airbnb’s business is.
For the 9 months ending September 2020, Airbnb posted a revenue drop of 32% when compared with the first 9 months of 2019. While this is a concern, the cut to sales and marketing expenditure at the same time points to a business that is quite resilient - In the same time period that revenue dropped by 32%, Airbnb cut its sales and marketing spend by a massive 54%. The ability to cut sales and marketing spend by over half while only having a revenue drop of 32% (in the middle of a pandemic) points to a business that is highly resilient with strong brand and customer loyalty.
  1. Post-Covid travel patterns may benefit Airbnb
If we compare the gross nights and experiences booked on Airbnb to Airbnb’s gross booking value (GBV), we see an interesting pattern. Gross bookings in August are down 28% YoY while GBV is only down 14%. This means that the average spend on an individual booking has actually trended up this year! To further validate this point, long-term stays were down only 13% this year, compared to 81% for short-term stays. There was actually YoY growth for long-term stays from May to September. The importance of long-term stays is highlighted by the quote below:
“We believe the long-term stays category represents a different use case than leisure travel, and as a result, was not as impacted as dramatically by COVID-19.”
Long-term stays are a distinct competitive advantage for Airbnb and if trends continue they could drive a lot of long-term growth.
Airbnb has also highlighted a number of other categories that have performed particularly well this year. In particular, ‘domestic travel’, ‘short-distance travel’ and ‘travel outside top 20 cities’ have performed very well. For example, short-distance travel grew a whopping 38% YoY in September.
No doubt these trends will reverse somewhat as we exit the pandemic. However, it is unlikely they will reverse fully. If these trends maintain decent momentum, they represent a shift in travel patterns that uniquely benefits Airbnb and provides a significant competitive advantage.
  1. Strong customer retention and brand loyalty
One of the most striking figures from the S-1 is that 91% of Airbnb’s traffic is organic, coming from direct and unpaid channels. This is very impressive. Airbnb has built an incredible brand and clearly has strong brand loyalty.
“Our strategy is to increase brand marketing and use the strength of our brand to attract more guests via direct or unpaid channels and to decrease our performance marketing spend relative to 2019.”
Customer engagement and retention are also impressively high on the platform. In 2019, 68% of guests left a review of their stay. 69% of revenue generate in 2019 was from repeat guests.
Airbnb also has very strong retention among their host community. In 2019, 84% of revenue came from people who had hosted in 2018. This shows that the majority of hosts are staying on the platform and continuing to earn money through Airbnb.
  1. International expansion is a big opportunity
Airbnb’s revenue growth has slowed over the last three years. It grew by 32% in 2019, down from 43% in 2018. While slowed growth is never great, 32% is quite healthy.
It remains to be seen what the impacts of Covid-19 will be on growth over the next few years. However, there seem to be big opportunities for international expansion which would allow Airbnb to maintain (and possibly improve) its growth rate.
Airbnb believes that its total addressable market is a whopping $3.4 trillion. While you can always take these predictions with a grain of salt, it is clear that Airbnb believes that a big part of this market opportunity lies outside the US and Europe. They highlight international expansion as a key part of their long-term growth strategy:
*“*Expand our global network. We plan to expand our global network in the countries in which we already have a deep presence, as well as to expand into markets where our penetration is lower, such as India, China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and tens of thousands of smaller markets and remote areas around the world.”
There are some encouraging signs that Airbnb has the potential to grow their international markets. They operate in 220 countries and importantly, 86% of their hosts are outside the US. International markets have also seen an increase in GBV and average nights per booking. In fact, Latin America has the highest average nights per booking of any region, at 4.1 nights. (North America is 3.7)
The strong customer loyalty previously mentioned, significant host presence in international markets (86%) and changing consumption patterns towards longer stays means that Airbnb has the potential to unlock a lot of value as they focus on international markets.
  1. Regulation is a big concern
Regulation is a big risk for Airbnb. 70% of the company’s top 200 largest cities (by revenue) have implemented some form of regulation on short-term stays. For example, London has put a 90 nights per year limit on short term stays for properties without specific planning permission to do so.
Airbnb make it clear in the S-1 that the evolving regulatory situation is a cause for concern:
“We are subject to a wide variety of complex, evolving, and sometimes inconsistent and ambiguous laws and regulations that may adversely impact our operations and discourage hosts and guests from using our platform, and that could cause us to incur significant liabilities including fines and criminal penalties, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.”
Airbnb makes sure to point out that they are not dependant on any one city, region or country. For example, the US is the only country that represents over 10% of Airbnb’s revenue. While this may be true, the evolving regulatory environment does not seem to be going in Airbnb’s favour.
Investment Plan
Please note that this is just an explanation of investing decisions for my personal portfolio and not a recommendation to anyone to buy/sell any stock.
To make a decision on whether or not to invest in Airbnb, I believe there are 3 important questions to answer:
  1. Does Airbnb have good upside potential?
  2. What year should conclusions be based on?
  3. What is a fair valuation?
  4. Does Airbnb have good upside potential?
Although there are regulatory concerns, based on the above analysis I believe that Airbnb has strong upside potential.
  1. What year should conclusions be based on?
The Airbnb S-1 is primarily focused on 2019 numbers. Airbnb believes that 2019 figures are the fairest reflection of the strength of the business. They believe that 2020 is a highly irregular year and that the company will rebound quickly post-covid. Investors should come up with their own conclusion on that but I agree with Airbnb that 2019 is a fair reflection of the business.
  1. What is a fair valuation for Airbnb?
This is where things get tricky. In some ways, Airbnb doesn’t have any direct competitors to compare against. They are similar to both OTAs (online travel agents) and hotel chains like Hilton but obviously quite different in a number of ways too.
In my opinion, an interesting comparison is with Uber. While not exactly the same, Airbnb and Uber have a lot of similarities. They are both semi-marketplaces (Airbnb is closer to a true marketplace). Uber connects drivers with riders while Airbnb connects hosts with guests. They have a similar business model in that they both take a % of each transaction on their platform.
Obviously there are quite a few differences. In particular, Uber drivers are far more commoditised than Airbnb hosts. Uber also has more direct competition (Lyft).
Looking at 2019 figures for the fairest comparison, Uber is currently priced at roughly 6.33 times 2019 revenue. If we go with the analyst expected valuation of $30 billion, Airbnb would be valued at roughly 6 times 2019 revenue. Uber grew revenue 26% YoY in 2019 while Airbnb grew 32%.
With all of this in mind and particularly considering that Uber’s model is less defensible, I believe that the analyst-estimated $30 billion valuation represents a very good price for Airbnb.
What’s my plan?
My plan is to wait and see what happens on IPO day. If analysts are wrong and the stock pops above $40/50 billion, I won’t be purchasing and will wait to see what Airbnb’s performance is like over the next few months. If the stock settles at or below $30 billion, then I will definitely be adding it to my portfolio.
What’s your plan?
Are you considering investing in Airbnb? What did you think of my analysis above? Anything I missed? Let me know your thoughts.
And please let me know if you found this post valuable and would like to read more. Thanks
submitted by tadhg8811 to investing [link] [comments]


2020.11.26 16:34 rivsky93 Mewing and Mental health

This post has 3 motives. First it's meant to warn. Secondly its for me to mark beggining of journey of healing , mewing and a better life. Thirdly its therapeutic for me as i needed to share this.
The warning is this- Mewing is not a solution to all your problems. If you're anything like me you might have attached a lot of value to this practice, believing it will finally solve some of this existential pain we all go through. You might believe that once you've become beautiful in a conventional sense life will get markedly easier, you will find a perfect partner, job , never will you have to experiance angst , frustration , sadness, loneliness or emptiness. Im sure this practice has health benefits but i also know for myself that it has become an unhealth obsession and it's hard to focus on other aspects of my life because how much effort and mental focus i put on this. There is more to life then being healthy and physically attractive. It is up to you to decide whether you're putting too much of your life into it or whether youre still able to make progress in life whilst focusing on this. If youre older and want to get results as i understand hardmewing and hardchin tucks (salludon style) is best way to make progress in reasonable amount of time , 6 months -a year. And these activities are draining. Very strenous and its hard to do anything else while doing this. So are you going to sacrifice a year of your life to improve your face ?( to whatever degree?)
So i have always struggled with mental health and some of you might have too. I believe it was caused by the fact that i was recessed in lower third and consequently always lacked confidence with my peers at school even though im otherwise fairly attractive and tall guy. when i got older and was able to grow a beard my confidence with opposite sex improved a lot ( funny eh). From young .age i escaped into long hours of gaming and porn abuse which consituted terrible posture and also i was a mouth breather for most of my early childhood (till 12-14 yo). I looked at a pic of me when i was 3 and i had a perfect profile back then, before mouth breathing. End of the chin was right beneath end of my nose. So all this escapism into gaming throoughout much of my life, terrible results in school and lack of friends obviously resulted in life long depression. Which i thought i would cure with Mewing. Again-it is not enough.
I have made a lot of positive changes in my life recently. I pledged to stop gaming , and successfully stayed off for last month, practice no fap, started regular yoga, whim hoff, and currently im studying for a teaching certificate in english language so i have a better prospect at getting a job. I still struggle mentally. I still feel ugly. All my life my coping mechanisms were escapism and porn abuse. Now i realized that Mewing it has been the thing that i escape to instead of studying or looking for a job , things that will actually get me out of depression.
So what I intend to do for myself is to find a sustainable way to incorporate mewing into my life, without it consuming my life and my psyche ( which i find with age, im 28, mental health is everything). Salludons results are very inspiring and i believe they are true. He showed video of his neck muscles ( forceful chin tucks thichens your neck and proper mewing with lower third up does too) and they are huge, and if you look at male models or anybody with good jaw development, they have thick necks. Theres a strong correlation there, look for yourself. But i dont believe i can find time for his routine (2h hardmewing daily+2h hard chintucks) as it is a huge time investment. So i will experiment with 30 min each and maybe progress.
Hope there will be a handful of people that can relate and this will help to. Look honestly at your demons. Its hard to see them sometimes stare back at you blanky. But its much needed
submitted by rivsky93 to Mewing [link] [comments]


2020.11.25 00:00 vkamat [Main] LNIB Rolex Air King 116900 - 100 spots at $71 each

Item Name: LNIB Rolex Air King 116900
Price: $7100
# of Spots: 100
Approval Link: https://mod.reddit.com/mail/all/iipga
Previous Raffle: 13-Oct-20 $7200 https://www.reddit.com/WatchURaffle/comments/jadyim/main_bnib_rolex_air_king_116900_72_spots_at_100ea/
Price Justification: $7250 9/26/20 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=765172
Price Justification: $7300 9/21/20 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=764407
Price Justification: $7500 9/17/20 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=761996
Price Justification: $7195 9/15/20 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=763288
Price Justification: $7245 11/3/20 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=768771
Price Justification: $7600 9/17/20 https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=764555
Price Justification: All comps - https://www.watchrecon.com/?query=116900&last_days=31
Call spots? Yes
Location/Country: USA
Will ship international? USA/CA
Pics: https://imgur.com/a/YoIN9iK
Timestamp: https://imgur.com/a/0ij3YLu
Escrow: Yes. vkamat for player1dad. YOUR ESCROW SPOTS: [83, 26, 80]
Description: Up raffle is brand new Rolex Air King. It is a full kit with box, books, new style warranty card and wallet. Only thing not included are the hang tags. This 40mm watch is made in the same case as the Milgauss and it has the same antimagnetic properties and movement. The dial is inspired by Bloodhound 1000 MPH Car's rolex instruments. This watch is unique because it is the only Rolex model to use the green and yellow combination. The 3,6,9 markers are made of white gold. The superlative chronometer movement provides accuracy of +2/-2 seconds per day. The card is dated August 2020 so almost the full 5 year warranty is remaining.
Update: Now LNIB Received but only put it on for the pictures here. With covid I have not had any opportunity to wear it and would like to recoup some money for the holiday season.

PayPal Info: [REDACTED]

Tip BoyAndHisBlob
Number of vacant slots: 0
Number of unpaid users: 0
Number of unpaid slots: 0
This slot list is created and updated by The EDC Raffle Tool by BoyAndHisBlob.
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submitted by vkamat to WatchURaffle [link] [comments]


2020.11.24 15:37 MiamiSlice [USA] [H] Games for Nintendo and Sony systems, Nintendo Powers, Strategy Guides, collectibles [W] Kirby's Dream Land 2 CIB, Mario Party 2 box, Etrian Odyssey Nexus cart, more games in list

Looking to trade! I have over 100 confirmed trades :) Right now I am mostly looking for the wants I have listed below, especially the high priority stuff, but I may be open to offers. Just please do not be offended if I say no!
p.s. "CIB" means complete, as in including all the booklets and such that were supposed to come in there, otherwise I will clarify what is included. "NIB" means New In Box, aka sealed, "brand new," in the shrink, etc.
p.p.s. If we are going to trade, all I ask is please be honest about the condition of your items. I can provide pictures for anything I have, please be willing to do the same! Thanks!

HAVE

Switch games, cards
3DS consoles, games, accessories
3DS boxes and manuals (no games)
DS console, games and accessories
DS boxes and manuals (no games)
GBA games and videos
GBC games and more
GB games and more
GB manuals (no games)
Wii U games and packaging
Wii games and accessories
GameCube games, accessories and packaging
N64
N64 manuals
NES games and accessories
PS3 boxes and manuals (no games)
PS2 games
PS2 boxes and manuals (no games)
PSX games
PSX boxes and manuals (no games)
IBM Tandy
PC
Strategy guides
Books
Nintendo Power Issues
Some pictures here, more available on request
Collectibles and posters
Comic Books
Random Stuff

WANT

The high priority stuff:
Lower priority:
Limited Print Switch Games (prefer CIB, also fine with Best Buy retail versions when applicable)
Retail Switch Games
3DS Games
DS Games
GBA
GBC
Game Boy
Wii U Games
Wii Games
GameCube games
PS3 Games
Strategy Guides
Also if you've read this far, I recently started an Instagram dedicated to video game collecting and would love to connect with others! My username is chillcollector.
submitted by MiamiSlice to gameswap [link] [comments]


2020.11.23 15:45 DragonGod2718 The Tesla Bull Case in Brief

Disclaimer
I have no financial position in Tesla at this point in time and no interest in initiating one within the next month.

Introduction

There seems to be a strong sentiment among some that Tesla is vastly overvalued, and that the current stock price is completely unrooted in reality. I understand the viewpoint, but don't really share the belief. That's not particularly surprising as I consider myself a Tesla optimist. I decided to present in brief the case for Tesla's valuation as I understand it.

Overvalued?

Tesla's current market capitalisation appears to be grossly overvalued, especially when compared to their peers in the automotive sector as these charts so clearly illustrate.
In fact, the charts actually understate things as Tesla's market cap currently seats at around $464 billion. You could add another Daimler to the US and EU listed companies and they would still have a lower market capitalisation than Tesla.
This really is the case for Tesla being overvalued: it's automotive revenues is many times it's current market capitalisation. Per MarketWatch, Tesla's trailing PE is 978.44, so it's not as if Tesla is especially profitable either.
On a fundamentals basis, Tesla appears to be grossly overvalued.

Growth

The above chart doesn't necessarily indicate that Tesla's current market capitalisation is an extremely speculative bubble that could burst soon, but more that Tesla is not valued based on its current financial situation. Tesla is valued as an extreme growth company, and it's growth over the past five years bears this out.
Revenue
Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth (%)
2008 15 -
2009 112 646.67
2010 117 4.46
2011 204 74.36%
2012 413 102.45
2013 2,013 387.41
2014 3,198 58.87
2015 4,046 26.52
2016 7,000 73.01
2017 11,759 67.99
2018 21,461 82.51
2019 24,578 14.52
Source (Macro Trends)

To contextualise this, here's Tesla's trailing CAGR:
Time span CAGR (%)
5 years 50.36%
7 years 79.27%
10 years 71.45%
Over the last decade, Tesla has demonstrated formidable growth. There's reason to believe that they can continue to show impressive growth (albeit lowered going forward).
The first two quarters of 2020 were battered by a pandemic (Tesla factories faced lockdowns due to the pandemic), and as a result are somewhat of an exception. There were no lockdowns during Q3.
Looking at Tesla's Q3 results, we see that the formidable growth story continues;
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Growth (%)
Vehicle Deliveries 97,186 139,593 44
Automotive Revenues (USD millions) 5,353 7,611 42
Storage Deployed (MW) 477 759 59
Solar Deployed 43 57 33
Energy Revenue 402 579 44
Total Revenue (USD millions) 6,303 8,771 39
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Going Forward
Wall Street seems to expect the growth story to continue. Per Market Insider, here are the consensus analyst estimates for the next five years:
Year Revenue (USD Millions) Growth (%)
2020 30,626 24.61
2021 44,937 46.73
2022 55,963 24.54
2023 79,620 42.27
2024 102,526 28.77
Source (Markets Insider)

I personally think that analyst consensus estimates are significantly underestimating Tesla's growth. In particular their figures for 2020 seem off by $2 billion or more. Analyst estimates for Q3 2020 were off by $495 million, and the estimate of $9,884M for Q4 seems off by around $1,500M (assuming Tesla meets the 180K delivery target) without accounting for the recognition of any deferred revenue. Tesla had $1,258M in deferred revenue at the end of Q3.
This may seem optimistic, but you're welcome to hold me to do this on January 28th 2021.
Despite their (potential) underestimation of Tesla, analysts expect a 5 year CAGR in 2024 of 33%. Tesla is expected to continue to show formidable growth to the end of the decade.

Expansion
Tesla would execute on this formidable growth story through capital expenditure. They will build numerous service centres and gigafactories. The goal is to have giga factories on all 6 economic continents (with some continents having several factories) in order to lower the expenses involved in distributing the cars and to streamline logistics. Currently, Tesla is building two new gigafactories in Berlin and Austin and is currently expanding Giga Shanghai.
An inherent assumption is that the market has the demand to absorb all this extra supply. Many states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles.
Source (Wikipedia)

Around 13 states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles on or before 2030. Over the coming decade, the EV total addressable market is projected to grow to 27 million by 2030 (at a CAGR of 21%). This again seems a bit too conservative. EV sales were down in the first half of 2020 (due to the pandemic), but in July sales grew 77% YoY. Some states have also pulled forward their timelines for phasing out fossil fuels since the forecast was initially made.
Tesla would face stiff competition going forward, but the total addressable market would grow fast enough to absorb all of Tesla's growth in supply if they can successfully market their vehicles. The risk here is that Tesla would fail to execute not that the total addressable market isn't large enough.
As an optimist, I'm fine betting on Tesla's ability to execute.

Access to Capital
To fund the massive expansion expected of them, Tesla would need to spend a lot on capital expenditure. Fortunately, access to capital is not a problem for Tesla.

Margins

Another component of the Tesla bull case is that in addition to hyper growth in revenues, Tesla's profit margins would also rise significantly over the next decade. This is readily apparent if we look at Tesla's past four quarters.
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Automotive gross margins have steadily risen from 22.8% a year ago to 25.4% last quarter and seem set to continue their upwards trajectory. Total gross margins have risen from 18.9% to 23.5%. There are good reasons to expect the rise to continue and maybe even accelerate going forward:

Manufacturing Efficiencies
As Tesla continues to ramp up production and innovate, they will be able to drive down the manufacturing cost of their vehicles, benefit even further from economies of scale (both in their production and their supply lines as EV demand heats up globally). Tesla's capital expenditure will become even more efficient; they will be able to squeeze out more manufacturing capacity, from the same amount of capital expenditures.
Tesla's rise in capex efficiency is apparent when you compare their capex expenditure in 2020 (construction of Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, Fremont Model Y ramp, and expansion of Giga Shanghai) to capex expenditure in 2017 (Fremont Model 3 ramp).
Source (Hypercharts)

Despite the lower capex in 2020, Tesla is building a lot more cars.
Source (Statista)

In addition to the aforementioned favourable trends, there are concrete reasons to expect Tesla to perform very well on the capex efficiency front over the next decade. At Tesla's battery day, Tesla laid out a roadmap to drastic increases in efficiency.
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Tesla is forecasting a 69%!!! increase in capex efficiency in the coming years.
Furthermore, the cost of batteries is forecast to fall by as much as 56%. Batteries are a significant component of the total cost, and the reduction in the cost of batteries would further improve Tesla's margins.
Aside from batteries, and capex efficiency, Tesla should also be able to drive down the cost of manufacturing other components of their electric cars due to Wright's Law.
While Tesla would pass on some of these cost savings to the consumer, they wouldn't pass on all of them. This is evidenced by Tesla's improved margins in 2020 despite several price cuts.

Network Services
Tesla's network services are included with their automotive revenues, but represent a novel high margin business that isn't part of the traditional automotive playbook. Using Tesla's fleet as the platform, Tesla can sell software products, subscriptions and other services to their customers. The recurring revenue of subscriptions in particular is a cause for optimism (especially given the potential high margins).
Tesla's existing products:
Tesla has only a few such products now, but they would likely develop more such products in time. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas referred to this as "the internet of cars".

Beyond Traditional Automotive Revenues

It's a common statement among Tesla bulls that Tesla is not just an automaker. In my experience sceptics tend to be annoyed by this and (rightly) point out that the supermajority of Tesla's revenue comes from traditional automotive endeavours (selling their cars). While this is true now, it's not necessarily the case 10 years from now, and there's reason to believe that traditional automotive activities may no longer constitute a majority of Tesla's revenue, and may represent an even smaller portion of Tesla's profits.
I'll cover some other businesses of Tesla's that are poised to grow over the next 10 years:

Energy
Tesla's energy business is poised to benefit substantially from the shift towards renewable power sources. In particular, Tesla's battery storage businesses stands a lot to gain. Per the Financial Times, total energy storage capacity would grow rapidly over the coming decade to over 700 Gwh by 2030.
Source (Financial Times)

The total addressable market is once again large enough to soak up hyper growth from Tesla over the next decade. Musk himself has stated that he expects Tesla's energy business to be as large as their automotive business long term (a reminder that Tesla's targeted end state is 20 million cars per year).
A refresher on Tesla Energy's available products:

Ridesharing
If Tesla can sufficiently advance their autonomy technology, they may finally be able to launch their autonomous ridesharing network. While Tesla's autonomy technology is currently not yet up to par for this application, their ongoing beta has been rapidly improving with weekly updates. The beta testers have been reporting significant improvements in capability since it was rolled out a month ago.
The bet is that Tesla would be able to reach superhuman driving capability before 2025. Their location agnostic approach would let them scale up operations much more quickly than geofenced competitors (e.g. Waymo).

Insurance
Tesla collates extensive data regarding vehicle usage and the driving patterns of their customers. Combined with their driver assist software, Tesla should be in a privileged position regarding risk assessments for Tesla customers. Using their abundant available data, Tesla may be able to prepare the most compelling insurance package for a sizable fraction of Tesla drivers.
Tesla insurance may also have a synergistic relationship with Tesla's warranty processing and service centres. Tesla insurance customers may be offered discounts on service that wouldn't be available to customers of other insurance providers.

Expectations

For public accountability purposes, I'll register my Tesla expectations for this year, next year and 2025. I'm not a financial analyst or otherwise particularly financially savvy, so I'll keep it pretty simple. I'll report my 25% - 75% confidence interval on the following metrics:

25% 75%
2020 Deliveries 480,000 520,000
2020 Revenue (USD millions) 30,000 36,000
2021 Deliveries 800,000 1,200,000
2021 Revenue (USD millions) 48,000 78,000
2025 Deliveries 3,000,000 5,000,000
2025 Revenue (USD millions) 135,000 350,000

The growing variation in the interquartile range is a representation of my growing uncertainty about the business.
I have neither a price target for $TSLA nor concrete expectations for its stock price (I've said in public before that $TSLA might go to $200 before going to $600).
I simply believe that Tesla will demonstrate hyper growth over the next decade and have a > 10 year investment horizon, so I would be comfortable investing in $TSLA using dollar cost averaging.

Closing Remarks

Many are dubious regarding Tesla's ability to deliver on the formidable vision outlined above. There are certainly numerous risks that may challenge Tesla's ability to deliver on hyper growth. However, as mentioned above, the main challenge to the hypergrowth narrative is execution risks. Fundamentally, it's a question of if Tesla can execute on the vision presented above. Giving their formidable track record so far (and the comparatively less than impressive records of the sceptics), I'm willing to bet that they can.

Additional Disclosure
While I have no financial position in $TSLA, I'm sort of an anomalous case. I only became interested in investing a couple of months ago, and I decided to defer any investments I would make until January 2021 to mitigate exposure to political risks. If I did have a portfolio, I'd expect $TSLA would feature in it (probably at around a 10% initial weighting).
submitted by DragonGod2718 to stocks [link] [comments]


2020.11.23 14:48 DragonGod2718 The Tesla Bull Case in Brief

Disclaimer
I have no financial position in Tesla at this point in time and no interest in initiating one within the next month.

Introduction

There seems to be a strong sentiment among some that Tesla is vastly overvalued, and that the current stock price is completely unrooted in reality. I understand the viewpoint, but don't really share the belief. That's not particularly surprising as I consider myself a Tesla optimist. I decided to present in brief the case for Tesla's valuation as I understand it.

Overvalued?

Tesla's current market capitalisation appears to be grossly overvalued, especially when compared to their peers in the automotive sector as these charts so clearly illustrate.
In fact, the charts actually understate things as Tesla's market cap currently seats at around $464 billion. You could add another Daimler to the US and EU listed companies and they would still have a lower market capitalisation than Tesla.
This really is the case for Tesla being overvalued: it's automotive revenues is many times it's current market capitalisation. Per MarketWatch, Tesla's trailing PE is 978.44, so it's not as if Tesla is especially profitable either.
On a fundamentals basis, Tesla appears to be grossly overvalued.

Growth

The above chart doesn't necessarily indicate that Tesla's current market capitalisation is an extremely speculative bubble that could burst soon, but more that Tesla is not valued based on its current financial situation. Tesla is valued as an extreme growth company, and it's growth over the past five years bears this out.
Revenue
Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth (%)
2008 15 -
2009 112 646.67
2010 117 4.46
2011 204 74.36%
2012 413 102.45
2013 2,013 387.41
2014 3,198 58.87
2015 4,046 26.52
2016 7,000 73.01
2017 11,759 67.99
2018 21,461 82.51
2019 24,578 14.52
Source (Macro Trends)

To contextualise this, here's Tesla's trailing CAGR:
Time span CAGR (%)
5 years 50.36%
7 years 79.27%
10 years 71.45%
Over the last decade, Tesla has demonstrated formidable growth. There's reason to believe that they can continue to show impressive growth (albeit lowered going forward).
The first two quarters of 2020 were battered by a pandemic (Tesla factories faced lockdowns due to the pandemic), and as a result are somewhat of an exception. There were no lockdowns during Q3.
Looking at Tesla's Q3 results, we see that the formidable growth story continues;
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Growth (%)
Vehicle Deliveries 97,186 139,593 44
Automotive Revenues (USD millions) 5,353 7,611 42
Storage Deployed (MW) 477 759 59
Solar Deployed 43 57 33
Energy Revenue 402 579 44
Total Revenue (USD millions) 6,303 8,771 39
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Going Forward
Wall Street seems to expect the growth story to continue. Per Market Insider, here are the consensus analyst estimates for the next five years:
Year Revenue (USD Millions) Growth (%)
2020 30,626 24.61
2021 44,937 46.73
2022 55,963 24.54
2023 79,620 42.27
2024 102,526 28.77
Source (Markets Insider)

I personally think that analyst consensus estimates are significantly underestimating Tesla's growth. In particular their figures for 2020 seem off by $2 billion or more. Analyst estimates for Q3 2020 were off by $495 million, and the estimate of $9,884M for Q4 seems off by around $1,500M (assuming Tesla meets the 180K delivery target) without accounting for the recognition of any deferred revenue. Tesla had $1,258M in deferred revenue at the end of Q3.
This may seem optimistic, but you're welcome to hold me to do this on January 28th 2021.
Despite their (potential) underestimation of Tesla, analysts expect a 5 year CAGR in 2024 of 33%. Tesla is expected to continue to show formidable growth to the end of the decade.

Expansion
Tesla would execute on this formidable growth story through capital expenditure. They will build numerous service centres and gigafactories. The goal is to have giga factories on all 6 economic continents (with some continents having several factories) in order to lower the expenses involved in distributing the cars and to streamline logistics. Currently, Tesla is building two new gigafactories in Berlin and Austin and is currently expanding Giga Shanghai.
An inherent assumption is that the market has the demand to absorb all this extra supply. Many states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles.
Source (Wikipedia)

Around 13 states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles on or before 2030. Over the coming decade, the EV total addressable market is projected to grow to 27 million by 2030 (at a CAGR of 21%). This again seems a bit too conservative. EV sales were down in the first half of 2020 (due to the pandemic), but in July sales grew 77% YoY. Some states have also pulled forward their timelines for phasing out fossil fuels since the forecast was initially made.
Tesla would face stiff competition going forward, but the total addressable market would grow fast enough to absorb all of Tesla's growth in supply if they can successfully market their vehicles. The risk here is that Tesla would fail to execute not that the total addressable market isn't large enough.
As an optimist, I'm fine betting on Tesla's ability to execute.

Access to Capital
To fund the massive expansion expected of them, Tesla would need to spend a lot on capital expenditure. Fortunately, access to capital is not a problem for Tesla.

Margins

Another component of the Tesla bull case is that in addition to hyper growth in revenues, Tesla's profit margins would also rise significantly over the next decade. This is readily apparent if we look at Tesla's past four quarters.
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Automotive gross margins have steadily risen from 22.8% a year ago to 25.4% last quarter and seem set to continue their upwards trajectory. Total gross margins have risen from 18.9% to 23.5%. There are good reasons to expect the rise to continue and maybe even accelerate going forward:

Manufacturing Efficiencies
As Tesla continues to ramp up production and innovate, they will be able to drive down the manufacturing cost of their vehicles, benefit even further from economies of scale (both in their production and their supply lines as EV demand heats up globally). Tesla's capital expenditure will become even more efficient; they will be able to squeeze out more manufacturing capacity, from the same amount of capital expenditures.
Tesla's rise in capex efficiency is apparent when you compare their capex expenditure in 2020 (construction of Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, Fremont Model Y ramp, and expansion of Giga Shanghai) to capex expenditure in 2017 (Fremont Model 3 ramp).
Source (Hypercharts)

Despite the lower capex in 2020, Tesla is building a lot more cars.
Source (Statista)

In addition to the aforementioned favourable trends, there are concrete reasons to expect Tesla to perform very well on the capex efficiency front over the next decade. At Tesla's battery day, Tesla laid out a roadmap to drastic increases in efficiency.
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Tesla is forecasting a 69%!!! increase in capex efficiency in the coming years.
Furthermore, the cost of batteries is forecast to fall by as much as 56%. Batteries are a significant component of the total cost, and the reduction in the cost of batteries would further improve Tesla's margins.
Aside from batteries, and capex efficiency, Tesla should also be able to drive down the cost of manufacturing other components of their electric cars due to Wright's Law.
While Tesla would pass on some of these cost savings to the consumer, they wouldn't pass on all of them. This is evidenced by Tesla's improved margins in 2020 despite several price cuts.

Network Services
Tesla's network services are included with their automotive revenues, but represent a novel high margin business that isn't part of the traditional automotive playbook. Using Tesla's fleet as the platform, Tesla can sell software products, subscriptions and other services to their customers. The recurring revenue of subscriptions in particular is a cause for optimism (especially given the potential high margins).
Tesla's existing products:
Tesla has only a few such products now, but they would likely develop more such products in time. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas referred to this as "the internet of cars".

Beyond Traditional Automotive Revenues

It's a common statement among Tesla bulls that Tesla is not just an automaker. In my experience sceptics tend to be annoyed by this and (rightly) point out that the supermajority of Tesla's revenue comes from traditional automotive endeavours (selling their cars). While this is true now, it's not necessarily the case 10 years from now, and there's reason to believe that traditional automotive activities may no longer constitute a majority of Tesla's revenue, and may represent an even smaller portion of Tesla's profits.
I'll cover some other businesses of Tesla's that are poised to grow over the next 10 years:

Energy
Tesla's energy business is poised to benefit substantially from the shift towards renewable power sources. In particular, Tesla's battery storage businesses stands a lot to gain. Per the Financial Times, total energy storage capacity would grow rapidly over the coming decade to over 700 Gwh by 2030.
Source (Financial Times)

The total addressable market is once again large enough to soak up hyper growth from Tesla over the next decade. Musk himself has stated that he expects Tesla's energy business to be as large as their automotive business long term (a reminder that Tesla's targeted end state is 20 million cars per year).
A refresher on Tesla Energy's available products:

Ridesharing
If Tesla can sufficiently advance their autonomy technology, they may finally be able to launch their autonomous ridesharing network. While Tesla's autonomy technology is currently not yet up to par for this application, their ongoing beta has been rapidly improving with weekly updates. The beta testers have been reporting significant improvements in capability since it was rolled out a month ago.
The bet is that Tesla would be able to reach superhuman driving capability before 2025. Their location agnostic approach would let them scale up operations much more quickly than geofenced competitors (e.g. Waymo).

Insurance
Tesla collates extensive data regarding vehicle usage and the driving patterns of their customers. Combined with their driver assist software, Tesla should be in a privileged position regarding risk assessments for Tesla customers. Using their abundant available data, Tesla may be able to prepare the most compelling insurance package for a sizable fraction of Tesla drivers.
Tesla insurance may also have a synergistic relationship with Tesla's warranty processing and service centres. Tesla insurance customers may be offered discounts on service that wouldn't be available to customers of other insurance providers.

Expectations

For public accountability purposes, I'll register my Tesla expectations for this year, next year and 2025. I'm not a financial analyst or otherwise particularly financially savvy, so I'll keep it pretty simple. I'll report my 25% - 75% confidence interval on the following metrics:

25% 75%
2020 Deliveries 160,000 200,000
2020 Revenue (USD millions) 30,000 36,000
2021 Deliveries 800,000 1,200,000
2021 Revenue (USD millions) 48,000 78,000
2025 Deliveries 3,000,000 5,000,000
2025 Revenue (USD millions) 135,000 350,000

The growing variation in the interquartile range is a representation of my growing uncertainty about the business.
I have neither a price target for $TSLA nor concrete expectations for its stock price (I've said in public before that $TSLA might go to $200 before going to $600).
I simply believe that Tesla will demonstrate hyper growth over the next decade and have a > 10 year investment horizon, so I would be comfortable investing in $TSLA using dollar cost averaging.

Closing Remarks

Many are dubious regarding Tesla's ability to deliver on the formidable vision outlined above. There are certainly numerous risks that may challenge Tesla's ability to deliver on hyper growth. However, as mentioned above, the main challenge to the hypergrowth narrative is execution risks. Fundamentally, it's a question of if Tesla can execute on the vision presented above. Giving their formidable track record so far (and the comparatively less than impressive records of the sceptics), I'm willing to bet that they can.

Additional Disclosure
While I have no financial position in $TSLA, I'm sort of an anomalous case. I only became interested in investing a couple of months ago, and I decided to defer any investments I would make until January 2021 to mitigate exposure to political risks. If I did have a portfolio, I'd expect $TSLA would feature in it (probably at around a 10% initial weighting).
submitted by DragonGod2718 to investing [link] [comments]


2020.11.23 14:23 DragonGod2718 The Tesla Bull Case in Brief

The Tesla Bull Case in Brief
Disclaimer
I have no financial position in Tesla at this point in time and no interest in initiating one within the next month.

Introduction

There seems to be a strong sentiment among some that Tesla is vastly overvalued, and that the current stock price is completely unrooted in reality. I understand the viewpoint, but don't really share the belief. That's not particularly surprising as I consider myself a Tesla optimist. I decided to present in brief the case for Tesla's valuation as I understand it.

Overvalued?

Tesla's current market capitalisation appears to be grossly overvalued, especially when compared to their peers in the automotive sector as the below charts so clearly illustrate:
Comparison of Tesla to European and American Automakers
In fact, the charts actually understate things as Tesla's market cap currently seats at around $464 billion. You could add another Daimler to the US and EU listed companies and they would still have a lower market capitalisation than Tesla.
This really is the case for Tesla being overvalued: it's automotive revenues is many times it's current market capitalisation. Per MarketWatch, Tesla's trailing PE is 978.44, so it's not as if Tesla is especially profitable either.
On a fundamentals basis, Tesla appears to be grossly overvalued.

Growth

The above chart doesn't necessarily indicate that Tesla's current market capitalisation is an extremely speculative bubble that could burst soon, but more that Tesla is not valued based on its current financial situation. Tesla is valued as an extreme growth company, and it's growth over the past five years bears this out.
Revenue
Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth (%)
2008 15 -
2009 112 646.67
2010 117 4.46
2011 204 74.36%
2012 413 102.45
2013 2,013 387.41
2014 3,198 58.87
2015 4,046 26.52
2016 7,000 73.01
2017 11,759 67.99
2018 21,461 82.51
2019 24,578 14.52
Source (Macro Trends)

To contextualise this, here's Tesla's trailing CAGR:
Time span CAGR (%)
5 years 50.36%
7 years 79.27%
10 years 71.45%
Over the last decade, Tesla has demonstrated formidable growth. There's reason to believe that they can continue to show impressive growth (albeit lowered going forward).
The first two quarters of 2020 were battered by a pandemic (Tesla factories faced lockdowns due to the pandemic), and as a result are somewhat of an exception. There were no lockdowns during Q3.
Looking at Tesla's Q3 results, we see that the formidable growth story continues;
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Growth (%)
Vehicle Deliveries 97,186 139,593 44
Automotive Revenues (USD millions) 5,353 7,611 42
Storage Deployed (MW) 477 759 59
Solar Deployed 43 57 33
Energy Revenue 402 579 44
Total Revenue (USD millions) 6,303 8,771 39
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Going Forward
Wall Street seems to expect the growth story to continue. Per Market Insider, here are the consensus analyst estimates for the next five years:
Year Revenue (USD Millions) Growth (%)
2020 30,626 24.61
2021 44,937 46.73
2022 55,963 24.54
2023 79,620 42.27
2024 102,526 28.77
Source (Markets Insider)

I personally think that analyst consensus estimates are significantly underestimating Tesla's growth. In particular their figures for 2020 seem off by $2 billion or more. Analyst estimates for Q3 2020 were off by $495 million, and the estimate of $9,884M for Q4 seems off by around $1,500M (assuming Tesla meets the 180K delivery target) without accounting for the recognition of any deferred revenue. Tesla had $1,258M in deferred revenue at the end of Q3.
This may seem optimistic, but you're welcome to hold me to do this on January 28th 2021.
Despite their (potential) underestimation of Tesla, analysts expect a 5 year CAGR in 2024 of 33%. Tesla is expected to continue to show formidable growth to the end of the decade.

Expansion
Tesla would execute on this formidable growth story through capital expenditure. They will build numerous service centres and gigafactories. The goal is to have giga factories on all 6 economic continents (with some continents having several factories) in order to lower the expenses involved in distributing the cars and to streamline logistics. Currently, Tesla is building two new gigafactories in Berlin and Austin and is currently expanding Giga Shanghai.
An inherent assumption is that the market has the demand to absorb all this extra supply. Many states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles:
Schedule for the phase out of fossil fuel passenger vehicles
Source (Wikipedia)

Around 13 states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles on or before 2030. Over the coming decade, the EV total addressable market is projected to grow to 27 million by 2030 (at a CAGR of 21%). This again seems a bit too conservative. EV sales were down in the first half of 2020 (due to the pandemic), but in July sales grew 77% YoY. Some states have also pulled forward their timelines for phasing out fossil fuels since the forecast was initially made.
Tesla would face stiff competition going forward, but the total addressable market would grow fast enough to absorb all of Tesla's growth in supply if they can successfully market their vehicles. The risk here is that Tesla would fail to execute not that the total addressable market isn't large enough.
As an optimist, I'm fine betting on Tesla's ability to execute.

Access to Capital
To fund the massive expansion expected of them, Tesla would need to spend a lot on capital expenditure. Fortunately, access to capital is not a problem for Tesla.
  • Tesla's cash on hand at the end of Q3 2020 was $14.5 billion.
    • Per their 10Q filing this is already sufficient to fund their capex needs up to 2023.
  • Free cash flow for the quarter was $1,395M.
  • Giving their current market capitalisation ($464 billion) and the mandatory demand from index funds on their inclusion ($60 billion), Tesla has an opportunity to raise $10 - $20 billion in a new capital raise.
    • A $20 billion raise would give them enough cash on hand at the end of 2020 to finance their expansion plans for several years going forward.
  • Free cash flow is expected to rise going forward:
    • In Q3 there was a 234% increase QoQ and a 276% increase YoY.
    • Tesla has been seeing increased efficiency of capital expenditures.

Margins

Another component of the Tesla bull case is that in addition to hyper growth in revenues, Tesla's profit margins would also rise significantly over the next decade. This is readily apparent if we look at Tesla's past four quarters:
Tesla's Trailing 4 Quarters Revenue and profits
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Automotive gross margins have steadily risen from 22.8% a year ago to 25.4% last quarter and seem set to continue their upwards trajectory. Total gross margins have risen from 18.9% to 23.5%. There are good reasons to expect the rise to continue and maybe even accelerate going forward:
  • Manufacturing Efficiencies
  • Network Services

Manufacturing Efficiencies
As Tesla continues to ramp up production and innovate, they will be able to drive down the manufacturing cost of their vehicles, benefit even further from economies of scale (both in their production and their supply lines as EV demand heats up globally). Tesla's capital expenditure will become even more efficient; they will be able to squeeze out more manufacturing capacity, from the same amount of capital expenditures.
Tesla's rise in capex efficiency is apparent when you compare their capex expenditure in 2020 (construction of Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, Fremont Model Y ramp, and expansion of Giga Shanghai) to capex expenditure in 2017 (Fremont Model 3 ramp):
Tesla's Capex Expenditures Q4 2016 - Q3 2020
Source (Hypercharts)

Despite the lower capex in 2020, Tesla is building a lot more cars:
Tesla Vehicle Production Q1 2016 - Q3 2020
Source (Statista)

In addition to the aforementioned favourable trends, there are concrete reasons to expect Tesla to perform very well on the capex efficiency front over the next decade. At Tesla's battery day, Tesla laid out a roadmap to drastic increases in efficiency:
Vertical Integration Benefits
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Tesla is forecasting a 69%!!! increase in capex efficiency in the coming years.
Furthermore, the cost of batteries is forecast to fall by as much as 56%. Batteries are a significant component of the total cost, and the reduction in the cost of batteries would further improve Tesla's margins.
Aside from batteries, and capex efficiency, Tesla should also be able to drive down the cost of manufacturing other components of their electric cars due to Wright's Law.
While Tesla would pass on some of these cost savings to the consumer, they wouldn't pass on all of them. This is evidenced by Tesla's improved margins in 2020 despite several price cuts.

Network Services
Tesla's network services are included with their automotive revenues, but represent a novel high margin business that isn't part of the traditional automotive playbook. Using Tesla's fleet as the platform, Tesla can sell software products, subscriptions and other services to their customers. The recurring revenue of subscriptions in particular is a cause for optimism (especially given the potential high margins).
Tesla's existing products:
  • Software
    • Full Self Driving: $10,000
    • Enhanced Autopilot: $4,000
      • This isn't currently available was previously an option
    • Acceleration Boosts
      • Model 3: $2,000
      • Model Y: $2,000
  • Subscriptions
    • Premium Connectivity: $10/month
    • Full Self Driving: ???
      • Reportedly coming soon
  • Miscellaneous
    • Supercharging
Tesla has only a few such products now, but they would likely develop more such products in time. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas referred to this as "the internet of cars".

Beyond Traditional Automotive Revenues

It's a common statement among Tesla bulls that Tesla is not just an automaker. In my experience sceptics tend to be annoyed by this and (rightly) point out that the supermajority of Tesla's revenue comes from traditional automotive endeavours (selling their cars). While this is true now, it's not necessarily the case 10 years from now, and there's reason to believe that traditional automotive activities may no longer constitute a majority of Tesla's revenue, and may represent an even smaller portion of Tesla's profits.
I'll cover some other businesses of Tesla's that are poised to grow over the next 10 years:
  • The aforementioned Network Services
  • Energy
  • Ridesharing
  • Insurance

Energy
Tesla's energy business is poised to benefit substantially from the shift towards renewable power sources. In particular, Tesla's battery storage businesses stands a lot to gain. Per the Financial Times, total energy storage capacity would grow rapidly over the coming decade to over 700 Gwh by 2030:
Projections for Energy Storage
Source (Financial Times)

The total addressable market is once again large enough to soak up hyper growth from Tesla over the next decade. Musk himself has stated that he expects Tesla's energy business to be as large as their automotive business long term (a reminder that Tesla's targeted end state is 20 million cars per year).
A refresher on Tesla Energy's available products:
  • Solar
    • Tesla solar panels: $1.49/watt (after incentives)
    • Solar Roof
  • Battery Storage
    • Power Wall (residential)
    • Power Pack (commercial)
    • Mega Pack (utility scale)

Ridesharing
If Tesla can sufficiently advance their autonomy technology, they may finally be able to launch their autonomous ridesharing network. While Tesla's autonomy technology is currently not yet up to par for this application, their ongoing beta has been rapidly improving with weekly updates. The beta testers have been reporting significant improvements in capability since it was rolled out a month ago.
The bet is that Tesla would be able to reach superhuman driving capability before 2025. Their location agnostic approach would let them scale up operations much more quickly than geofenced competitors (e.g. Waymo).

Insurance
Tesla collates extensive data regarding vehicle usage and the driving patterns of their customers. Combined with their driver assist software, Tesla should be in a privileged position regarding risk assessments for Tesla customers. Using their abundant available data, Tesla may be able to prepare the most compelling insurance package for a sizable fraction of Tesla drivers.
Tesla insurance may also have a synergistic relationship with Tesla's warranty processing and service centres. Tesla insurance customers may be offered discounts on service that wouldn't be available to customers of other insurance providers.

Expectations

For public accountability purposes, I'll register my Tesla expectations for this year, next year and 2025. I'm not a financial analyst or otherwise particularly financially savvy, so I'll keep it pretty simple. I'll report my 25% - 75% confidence interval on the following metrics:
  • Vehicle deliveries
  • Total revenue

25% 75%
2020 Deliveries 160,000 200,000
2020 Revenue (USD millions) 30,000 36,000
2021 Deliveries 800,000 1,200,000
2021 Revenue (USD millions) 48,000 78,000
2025 Deliveries 3,000,000 5,000,000
2025 Revenue (USD millions) 135,000 350,000

The growing variation in the interquartile range is a representation of my growing uncertainty about the business.
I have neither a price target for $TSLA nor concrete expectations for its stock price (I've said in public before that $TSLA might go to $200 before going to $600:
https://preview.redd.it/v86gdkbhyz061.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=b26af1f3c8bfdf0048c7f9977ba366dcb344c12a

I simply believe that Tesla will demonstrate hyper growth over the next decade and have a > 10 year investment horizon, so I would be comfortable investing in $TSLA using dollar cost averaging.

Closing Remarks

Many are dubious regarding Tesla's ability to deliver on the formidable vision outlined above. There are certainly numerous risks that may challenge Tesla's ability to deliver on hyper growth. However, as mentioned above, the main challenge to the hypergrowth narrative is execution risks. Fundamentally, it's a question of if Tesla can execute on the vision presented above. Giving their formidable track record so far (and the comparatively less than impressive records of the sceptics), I'm willing to bet that they can.

Additional Disclosure
While I have no financial position in $TSLA, I'm sort of an anomalous case. I only became interested in investing a couple of months ago, and I decided to defer any investments I would make until January 2021 to mitigate exposure to political risks. If I did have a portfolio, I'd expect $TSLA would feature in it (probably at around a 10% initial weighting).
submitted by DragonGod2718 to u/DragonGod2718 [link] [comments]


2020.11.23 14:13 DragonGod2718 The Tesla Bull Case in Brief

The Tesla Bull Case in Brief
Disclaimer
I have no financial position in Tesla at this point in time and no interest in initiating one within the next month.

Introduction

There seems to be a strong sentiment that Tesla is vastly overvalued here, and that the current stock price is completely unrooted in reality. I understand the viewpoint, but don't really share the belief. That's not surprising as I consider myself a Tesla optimist. This is a subreddit for "healthy scepticism", and per rule 4 optimistic pro Tesla arguments are encouraged to balance the sceptical stance, so I decided to present in brief the case for Tesla's valuation as I understand it.

Overvalued?

Tesla's current market capitalisation appears to be grossly overvalued, especially when compared to their peers in the automotive sector as the below charts so clearly illustrate:
Comparison of Tesla to European and American Automakers
In fact, the charts actually understate things as Tesla's market cap currently seats at around $464 billion. You could add another Daimler to the US and EU listed companies and they would still have a lower market capitalisation than Tesla.
This really is the case for Tesla being overvalued: it's automotive revenues is many times it's current market capitalisation. Per MarketWatch, Tesla's trailing PE is 978.44, so it's not as if Tesla is especially profitable either.
On a fundamentals basis, Tesla appears to be grossly overvalued.

Growth

The above chart doesn't necessarily indicate that Tesla's current market capitalisation is an extremely speculative bubble that could burst soon, but more that Tesla is not valued based on its current financial situation. Tesla is valued as an extreme growth company, and it's growth over the past five years bears this out.
Revenue
Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth (%)
2008 15 -
2009 112 646.67
2010 117 4.46
2011 204 74.36%
2012 413 102.45
2013 2,013 387.41
2014 3,198 58.87
2015 4,046 26.52
2016 7,000 73.01
2017 11,759 67.99
2018 21,461 82.51
2019 24,578 14.52
Source (Macro Trends)

To contextualise this, here's Tesla's trailing CAGR:
Time span CAGR (%)
5 years 50.36%
7 years 79.27%
10 years 71.45%
Over the last decade, Tesla has demonstrated formidable growth. There's reason to believe that they can continue to show impressive growth (albeit lowered going forward).
The first two quarters of 2020 were battered by a pandemic (Tesla factories faced lockdowns due to the pandemic), and as a result are somewhat of an exception. There were no lockdowns during Q3.
Looking at Tesla's Q3 results, we see that the formidable growth story continues;
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Growth (%)
Vehicle Deliveries 97,186 139,593 44
Automotive Revenues (USD millions) 5,353 7,611 42
Storage Deployed (MW) 477 759 59
Solar Deployed 43 57 33
Energy Revenue 402 579 44
Total Revenue (USD millions) 6,303 8,771 39
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Going Forward
Wall Street seems to expect the growth story to continue. Per Market Insider, here are the consensus analyst estimates for the next five years:
Year Revenue (USD Millions) Growth (%)
2020 30,626 24.61
2021 44,937 46.73
2022 55,963 24.54
2023 79,620 42.27
2024 102,526 28.77
Source (Markets Insider)

I personally think that analyst consensus estimates are significantly underestimating Tesla's growth. In particular their figures for 2020 seem off by $2 billion or more. Analyst estimates for Q3 2020 were off by $495 million, and the estimate of $9,884M for Q4 seems off by around $1,500M (assuming Tesla meets the 180K delivery target) without accounting for the recognition of any deferred revenue. Tesla had $1,258M in deferred revenue at the end of Q3.
This may seem optimistic, but you're welcome to hold me to do this on January 28th 2021.
Despite their (potential) underestimation of Tesla, analysts expect a 5 year CAGR in 2024 of 33%. Tesla is expected to continue to show formidable growth to the end of the decade.

Expansion
Tesla would execute on this formidable growth story through capital expenditure. They will build numerous service centres and gigafactories. The goal is to have giga factories on all 6 economic continents (with some continents having several factories) in order to lower the expenses involved in distributing the cars and to streamline logistics. Currently, Tesla is building two new gigafactories in Berlin and Austin and is currently expanding Giga Shanghai.
An inherent assumption is that the market has the demand to absorb all this extra supply. Many states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles:
Schedule for the phase out of fossil fuel passenger vehicles
Source (Wikipedia)

Around 13 states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles on or before 2030. Over the coming decade, the EV total addressable market is projected to grow to 27 million by 2030 (at a CAGR of 21%). This again seems a bit too conservative. EV sales were down in the first half of 2020 (due to the pandemic), but in July sales grew 77% YoY. Some states have also pulled forward their timelines for phasing out fossil fuels since the forecast was initially made.
Tesla would face stiff competition going forward, but the total addressable market would grow fast enough to absorb all of Tesla's growth in supply if they can successfully market their vehicles. The risk here is that Tesla would fail to execute not that the total addressable market isn't large enough.
As an optimist, I'm fine betting on Tesla's ability to execute.

Access to Capital
To fund the massive expansion expected of them, Tesla would need to spend a lot on capital expenditure. Fortunately, access to capital is not a problem for Tesla.
  • Tesla's cash on hand at the end of Q3 2020 was $14.5 billion.
    • Per their 10Q filing this is already sufficient to fund their capex needs up to 2023.
  • Free cash flow for the quarter was $1,395M.
  • Giving their current market capitalisation ($464 billion) and the mandatory demand from index funds on their inclusion ($60 billion), Tesla has an opportunity to raise $10 - $20 billion in a new capital raise.
    • A $20 billion raise would give them enough cash on hand at the end of 2020 to finance their expansion plans for several years going forward.
  • Free cash flow is expected to rise going forward:
    • In Q3 there was a 234% increase QoQ and a 276% increase YoY.
    • Tesla has been seeing increased efficiency of capital expenditures.

Margins

Another component of the Tesla bull case is that in addition to hyper growth in revenues, Tesla's profit margins would also rise significantly over the next decade. This is readily apparent if we look at Tesla's past four quarters:
Tesla's Trailing 4 Quarters Revenue and profits
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Automotive gross margins have steadily risen from 22.8% a year ago to 25.4% last quarter and seem set to continue their upwards trajectory. Total gross margins have risen from 18.9% to 23.5%. There are good reasons to expect the rise to continue and maybe even accelerate going forward:
  • Manufacturing Efficiencies
  • Network Services

Manufacturing Efficiencies
As Tesla continues to ramp up production and innovate, they will be able to drive down the manufacturing cost of their vehicles, benefit even further from economies of scale (both in their production and their supply lines as EV demand heats up globally). Tesla's capital expenditure will become even more efficient; they will be able to squeeze out more manufacturing capacity, from the same amount of capital expenditures.
Tesla's rise in capex efficiency is apparent when you compare their capex expenditure in 2020 (construction of Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, Fremont Model Y ramp, and expansion of Giga Shanghai) to capex expenditure in 2017 (Fremont Model 3 ramp):
Tesla's Capex Expenditures Q4 2016 - Q3 2020
Source (Hypercharts)

Despite the lower capex in 2020, Tesla is building a lot more cars:
Tesla Vehicle Production Q1 2016 - Q3 2020
Source (Statista)

In addition to the aforementioned favourable trends, there are concrete reasons to expect Tesla to perform very well on the capex efficiency front over the next decade. At Tesla's battery day, Tesla laid out a roadmap to drastic increases in efficiency:
Vertical Integration Benefits
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Tesla is forecasting a 69%!!! increase in capex efficiency in the coming years.
Furthermore, the cost of batteries is forecast to fall by as much as 56%. Batteries are a significant component of the total cost, and the reduction in the cost of batteries would further improve Tesla's margins.
Aside from batteries, and capex efficiency, Tesla should also be able to drive down the cost of manufacturing other components of their electric cars due to Wright's Law.
While Tesla would pass on some of these cost savings to the consumer, they wouldn't pass on all of them. This is evidenced by Tesla's improved margins in 2020 despite several price cuts.

Network Services
Tesla's network services are included with their automotive revenues, but represent a novel high margin business that isn't part of the traditional automotive playbook. Using Tesla's fleet as the platform, Tesla can sell software products, subscriptions and other services to their customers. The recurring revenue of subscriptions in particular is a cause for optimism (especially given the potential high margins).
Tesla's existing products:
  • Software
    • Full Self Driving: $10,000
    • Enhanced Autopilot: $4,000
      • This isn't currently available was previously an option
    • Acceleration Boosts
      • Model 3: $2,000
      • Model Y: $2,000
  • Subscriptions
    • Premium Connectivity: $10/month
    • Full Self Driving: ???
      • Reportedly coming soon
  • Miscellaneous
    • Supercharging
Tesla has only a few such products now, but they would likely develop more such products in time. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas referred to this as "the internet of cars".

Beyond Traditional Automotive Revenues

It's a common statement among Tesla bulls that Tesla is not just an automaker. In my experience sceptics tend to be annoyed by this and (rightly) point out that the supermajority of Tesla's revenue comes from traditional automotive endeavours (selling their cars). While this is true now, it's not necessarily the case 10 years from now, and there's reason to believe that traditional automotive activities may no longer constitute a majority of Tesla's revenue, and may represent an even smaller portion of Tesla's profits.
I'll cover some other businesses of Tesla's that are poised to grow over the next 10 years:
  • The aforementioned Network Services
  • Energy
  • Ridesharing
  • Insurance

Energy
Tesla's energy business is poised to benefit substantially from the shift towards renewable power sources. In particular, Tesla's battery storage businesses stands a lot to gain. Per the Financial Times, total energy storage capacity would grow rapidly over the coming decade to over 700 Gwh by 2030:
Projections for Energy Storage
Source (Financial Times)

The total addressable market is once again large enough to soak up hyper growth from Tesla over the next decade. Musk himself has stated that he expects Tesla's energy business to be as large as their automotive business long term (a reminder that Tesla's targeted end state is 20 million cars per year).
A refresher on Tesla Energy's available products:
  • Solar
    • Tesla solar panels: $1.49/watt (after incentives)
    • Solar Roof
  • Battery Storage
    • Power Wall (residential)
    • Power Pack (commercial)
    • Mega Pack (utility scale)

Ridesharing
If Tesla can sufficiently advance their autonomy technology, they may finally be able to launch their autonomous ridesharing network. While Tesla's autonomy technology is currently not yet up to par for this application, their ongoing beta has been rapidly improving with weekly updates. The beta testers have been reporting significant improvements in capability since it was rolled out a month ago.
The bet is that Tesla would be able to reach superhuman driving capability before 2025. Their location agnostic approach would let them scale up operations much more quickly than geofenced competitors (e.g. Waymo).

Insurance
Tesla collates extensive data regarding vehicle usage and the driving patterns of their customers. Combined with their driver assist software, Tesla should be in a privileged position regarding risk assessments for Tesla customers. Using their abundant available data, Tesla may be able to prepare the most compelling insurance package for a sizable fraction of Tesla drivers.
Tesla insurance may also have a synergistic relationship with Tesla's warranty processing and service centres. Tesla insurance customers may be offered discounts on service that wouldn't be available to customers of other insurance providers.

Expectations

For public accountability purposes, I'll register my Tesla expectations for this year, next year and 2025. I'm not a financial analyst or otherwise particularly financially savvy, so I'll keep it pretty simple. I'll report my 25% - 75% confidence interval on the following metrics:
  • Vehicle deliveries
  • Total revenue

25% 75%
2020 Deliveries 160,000 200,000
2020 Revenue (USD millions) 30,000 36,000
2021 Deliveries 800,000 1,200,000
2021 Revenue (USD millions) 48,000 78,000
2025 Deliveries 3,000,000 5,000,000
2025 Revenue (USD millions) 135,000 350,000

The growing variation in the interquartile range is a representation of my growing uncertainty about the business.
I have neither a price target for $TSLA nor concrete expectations for its stock price (I've said in public before that $TSLA might go to $200 before going to $600:
https://preview.redd.it/93awg34280161.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd2ed50b5c1da991082878c092ff1797744ceb0e

I simply believe that Tesla will demonstrate hyper growth over the next decade and have a > 10 year investment horizon, so I would be comfortable investing in $TSLA using dollar cost averaging.

Closing Remarks

Many are dubious regarding Tesla's ability to deliver on the formidable vision outlined above. There are certainly numerous risks that may challenge Tesla's ability to deliver on hyper growth. However, as mentioned above, the main challenge to the hypergrowth narrative is execution risks. Fundamentally, it's a question of if Tesla can execute on the vision presented above. Giving their formidable track record so far (and the comparatively less than impressive records of the sceptics), I'm willing to bet that they can.

Additional Disclosure
While I have no financial position in $TSLA, I'm sort of an anomalous case. I only became interested in investing a couple of months ago, and I decided to defer any investments I would make until January 2021 to mitigate exposure to political risks. If I did have a portfolio, I'd expect $TSLA would feature in it (probably at around a 10% initial weighting).
submitted by DragonGod2718 to RealTesla [link] [comments]


2020.11.20 18:37 Blainer2013 [WTS] Digital Reloading scale, old powder dropper, Multi-Caliber ammo checker, 30cal boresnake and folding foregrip (ME)

Happy Friday folks! Paypal and Venmo accepted. Call dibs and ill get to you ASAP. Im working the night shift and will get in contact when I can.
No FEET
From the 90's Lee Powder dropper(leaks a bit but works) no lid- $18 shipped
Lyman MSR multi cal ammo checker- $30 shipped u/followupquestion
TDI FFG2 folding foregrip black- $15 shipped
2x A2 Grips- $14 shipped
Hoppes Model 24015 30 Caliber boresnake (never used) $12 shipped
Lyman micro-touch 1500 digital reloading scale $35 shipped sold to u/YoBoiBabyLegs
submitted by Blainer2013 to GunAccessoriesForSale [link] [comments]


2020.11.20 06:27 FIRE_RING Trying to build a pc on a tight budget (620 USD)

Hello all, I am a 14 yo trying to build a pc with money saved from a couple hours of years.
What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?
Extra info or particulars:
submitted by FIRE_RING to buildapcforme [link] [comments]


2020.11.20 02:56 liamsawymilk My own season of danganronpa this is just the prologue.feedback would be nice 👍

(Ok before you read this just know I am horrible with starting story’s and ending them so sorry if the beginning and ending aren’t that good) Hi I’m Kichi Saito,i like to play video games and play basketball every once in a while but something I love is that I am one of 3 ultimate lucky students that attend hopes peak academy.Well I don’t really attend hopes peak academy yet I’m supposed to be going there tomorrow.I heard that ultimates like the ultimate hockey pro,the ultimate hypnotist and even the ultimate builder will be there along with other shining examples of hope.
THE NEXT DAY
I’m so excited to be going to hopes peak as I enter the ginormous building ahead of me I feel some sort of dizziness then I pass out.
???:”Hey buddy! Get up”
I hear a voice I’ve never heard before when I open my eyes I’m outside in what seems like a forest.
???” Yo dude are u alright”:???
Kichi Saito”Oh yea I’m fine I just, where are we?”
???:”Well we are at some campsite I don’t know all the details but there are more of us at the dining hall”
More of us? Who is this guy?
???:”Oh well you prolly want an introduction right?”
Kichi saito:”yea sure I’m Kichi Saito the Ultimate lucky student of class 93 at hopes peak academy”
???:”nice to meetcha kichi! I’m Luke Miller the ultimate hockey pro”
Hmph the ultimate hockey pro I’ve heard that he’s a good leader and really friendly towards fans.
Luke Miller:”yea I know it’s kinda weird having a celebrity in ur midst but I promise I’ll be just another guy”
Kichi Saito:”uhh ok then. Where are these others your talking about?”
Luke Miller:”oh well there at the dining hall”
Kichi Saito:”uhh where is that?”
Luke Miller:” cmon Kichi I’ll take u there!”
Luke said that loud with confidence and started walking off,I ran up and caught up to him
Luke Miller:”so uhh Kichi what’s the last thing you remember?”
Kichi Saito:”well the last thing I remember is walking in to hopes peak academy and passing out”
Luke Miller:”so it did happen to everyone!”
Kichi Saito:”what do you mean?”
Luke Miller:”well everyone that’s at the dining hall said that they walked into hopes peak academy and passed out”
Kichi Saito:”that’s really strange”
Luke Miller:”yea it is, well we’re here at the dining hall”
This didn’t really strike me until I went inside but there wer 14 other students not including me and Luke I’m still not entirely sure what’s going on but-
Large male:”so this has gotta be everyone right?”
Luke Miller:”yea the dude on the intercom said that there are 16 of us here”
Pretty female:”so now what do we do?”
Hillbilly male:”well we oughta do what the guy on the intercom said we gotta go to them cabins for a meeting or somthin”
Mysterious looking male:”well I guess we must go”
Hillbilly:”easy for u to say chink but i ain’t going nowhere without reason”
Luke Miller:”Daryl! Chill out with the racism”
BUZZZZ!
Mysterious voice on intercom:”ahem ahem could all students of hopes peak academy please go to the cabins those students who do not will be punished so ya better get ur little butts over there in 5”
Luke Miller:”ya heard him guys let’s get going”
After Luke said that we all went to the cabins and what met us was...
Luke Miller:”a teddy bear?”
Monokuma:”I’m not a teddy bear I am Monokuma!The principle of hopes peak academy!”
Hillbilly:”ya can’t be serious this is gotta be a joke”
Red head chick”I don’t think it is”
Monokuma:”look at that finally somebody has some respect around here”
Hot guy:”can somebody explain why we are listening to a build a bear reject?”
Monokuma:”because I’m gonna introduce everyone to the audience”
Luke Miller:”wait audie-“
Monokuma: we have the ultimate cartoonist yoshi Sakai (female) Next we have the ultimate blacksmith Shinsuke Ishikawa (male) Then the ultimate lucky student kichi Saito (male MC) The ultimate hockey pro Luke Miller (male) The ultimate archer Mayumi Habash (female) The ultimate hypnotist shoichi goto (male) The ultimate model Goro nishimura (male) The ultimate teacher ryoko otsuka (female) The ultimate surfer Kawa Masuda (female) Tomiko Kondo the ultimate Vet (female) Akira Jingu the ultimate ninja (male) The ultimate singer toro fukuda(female) Utano okamoto the ultimate ice skater(female) Daryl Elchart the ultimate hunter (male) The ultimate boxer kentaro Jackson (male) And finally the ultimate builder Alex gray (female)
Monokuma:”alright I’ll cut to the chase you are all stuck on this camp ground for the rest of your lives”
Toro Fukuda:”wait what?”
Kentaro Jackson:”but what about are family’s”
Monokuma:”Weeeeell if you wanna see them again you gotta do one thing”
Shoichi goto:”and what would that be?”
Monokuma” all you gotta do is murder a classmate”
Wait did he just say we gotta kill each other? He can’t be serious
Kichi Saito:”but we would never kill each other”
Daryl Elchart:”yea nobody here would do that”
Akira Jingu:”Daryl are you sure that NOBODY will kill”
Kawa Masuda:”Akira Dont say that kinda stuff”
Akira Jingu:”but I am not wrong there is only one thing to fear in this killing game”
Alex Gray:”what would that be?”
Akira Jingu:”each other”
submitted by liamsawymilk to danganronpa [link] [comments]


2020.11.19 20:18 shanabailey Products that I did NOT add to database today - sorted by popularity (19.11.2020)

https://facebook.com/4192478777435355
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submitted by shanabailey to couponsfromchina [link] [comments]


2020.11.19 20:16 ThePandaisInsane RKT DD

RKT DD
Edit 1: I am bullish on RKT over the next year, maybe not the right sub for this but you guys are way smarter than me and its options so I threw it up. Fixed RSI to RSI 14 in body to eliminate confusion.
This is my first DD, thanks to u/its_logan75 for the template.
Intro
TL;DR for Intro,
- RKT lends money to people, primarily, but not restricted to, mortgages
- I think RKT is going to start an uptrend very soon
Rocket Companies, Inc. Negative sentiment towards this stock is prolific on WSB, yet fear not, fellow autists, for I am here to break down this company and let you know how to make some sweet (maybe slow) tendies. Mortgages, we all need them. RKT does them, but they have recently branched out into other forms of lending to include personal lending and auto sales. Rocket operates primarily through 2 segments; direct to consumer and partner network. Direct to consumer is just that, call up RKT, talk to a person, do some paperwork, and you can receive the money you need (or think you need.) The partner network uses the “Rocket Pro” platform to support clients with a “superior” experience, taking advantage of modern technology to make complex lending problems simple (for people who require a large number of mortgages and the management of those mortgages).
I think RKT is going to go up. I’ll explain why in the next sections.
Positions: short (3) 12/18 $20.00 puts and long 100 shares. Want to be assigned below $25 on 300 more shares. Price target $45 by December 31, 2021 (I’m Theta Gang, going to wheel).
Technical Analysis
TL:DR for TA
- RKT had a pump and dump during IPO
- RKT had a massive buy back of 30 mil shares from 1-5 Oct
- RKT RSI 14 is 11.21, oversold
Having gone public this year, RKT had a significant up trend common with IPO’s followed by a sell off on 2-3 September (combined volume of 25 mil over the two days; average trading volume for RKT to the end of September was 3ish mil a day.) This sell off dropped the price from its ATH of $33.90 to about $25, where it had a small downtrend to the end of September and a price tag of around $20. Pump and dumps are incredibly common on stocks during IPO, and often it takes a while for the stock to stabilize. Here’s where things get juicy, from 1-5 Oct there were about 12.5 mil shares purchased in bulk.
RKT has been undergoing a consolidation and I believe that its done. RKT RSI 14 is sitting at 11.21 at the time of writing, indicating a supremely oversold stock. Look at Figure 1, all of these things discussed are there. I used Robinhood, you’re welcome.

https://preview.redd.it/rj5ev7egw8061.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b32872fb52d7320280666e99083a5914ee14a34
Figure 1: 3 month chart of RKT, circle 1 is IPO sell off, circle 2 is Oct bulk buy. RSI is bottom orange line, very low at time of writing.
That’s about all the TA I’m going to do, I don’t believe in micro level TA.
Fundamentals
TL;DR for Fundamentals
- RKT did very well on their 10Q, but hard to compare as its their first one
- Mortgage and refinance demand is higher YoY than 2019 as a result of low rates
- Risk is there: credit risk, economic downturn, people stop wanting to buy houses are the three big ones I’m concerned with. Credit Risk is what RKT is concerned with (according to the 10Q).
The Quarterly Report
RKT released its first quarterly report ending on 30 September 2020. One must be weary when reading a first report because there is little to compare to, BUT, might as well. All the numbers were absolutely astonishing. The YoY growth was incredible when compared to their claimed values from last year. Read the below statistics in (4) columns: Stat, September 30, 2020: December 31, 2019: % change. (in thousands, except %, that is just %)
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $3,485,137: $1,394,571: 150% increase
- Total Assets: $37,752,829: $20,122,846: 87.6% increase
- Total Liabilities: $31,392,093, $16,607,291: 89.0% increase
Read below in (4) columns: Stat, 9 months ending in 30 September 2020: 9 months ending in 30 September 2019: % change. (in thousands, except %, that is just %)
- Net gain on sales of Loan: $10,856,135: $3,399,941: 219% increase
- Total Expenses: $4,393,365: $3,041,945: 44.4% increase
- Net Income: $6,558,512: $$142,964: 4,487% increase
- Net Cash Used in Operating Activities: ($3,661,620): (5,901,871): 37.9% decrease
RKT increased its Cash on hand by 150%, increased its total assets and liabilities at a near 1:1 ratio (not great but normal for large businesses). The second set of stats is the interesting YoY stuff, from Jan to 30 Sep in 2020, they increased their Net Gain on Sales of Loan by 219% and they’re NET INCOME BY 4,487% as a result of limiting the increase of their expenses to only 44.4% all while decreasing Net Cash Used in Operating Activities by 37.9%. SO. If what they put on their balance sheet is true then they’re business is simply exploding.
On November 10,2020, the board of directors approved a share repurchase program, authorizing (but not requiring) the Company to repurchase outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, of any Class, not to exceed $1 billion. This is in effect for 2 years. (THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, IT MEANS IT COULD HAPPEN.)
The Market
Transitioning from the 10Q to the market. Mortgage demand increased during the COVID-19 pandemic (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/mortgage-demand-from-homebuyers-spikes-18percent.html), being 17% HIGHER in May then in April. People began to take advantage of the COVID-19 interest rates to take out new mortgages (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200703005149/en/Number-of-Mortgage-Applications-Increases-due-to-COVID-19-Implications---ResearchAndMarkets.com). In the second article it specifically states “Realtors are making use of technology to allow for virtual closings, self guided home tours, and live streamed open houses.” NOW, the reverse side of the coin, a Nov 11 2020 CNBC article (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/mortgage-demand-from-homebuyers-drops-to-lowest-level-in-6-months.html) states that “Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 3% for the week AND were 16% higher than a year ago….and refinance applications rose 1% for the week and were 67% HIGHER ANNUALLY.” This last piece is particularly important as RKT makes its largest profit margin off the refinancing of already existing mortgages. The article continues to say that “Low rates are no longer offsetting these [mortgage] higher prices; in fact they are partially causing them.”
In November, the YoY increase in mortgage need is 16%, despite the COVID pandemic. Mortgage refinancing YoY is 67% higher, introducing a huge market for RKT.
Finally, opinion time, COVID-19 validated RKT main business model by proving that real estate buying and selling can be accomplished almost entirely online. Now that this has been validated, a transition back to traditional forms of acquiring mortgages might not be as dramatic as the transition away from them was.
Risk Management
This is going to be short, RKT largest risk is “credit risk”, the risk associated with handling credit and the other party not holding up to their end of the deal. RKT mitigates this by selling around 70% of their mortgages while only managing about 30%, with an average hold time of about 18 days.
Next, a large economic downturn happens similar to 2008. This is unpredictable and is a risk in all businesses.
Finally, people stop wanting to buy houses. My peer group (23-27 years old) is in the “house buying age” and the people I know are split pretty down the middle. Half the people I’m affiliated with have bought a house, yet most single people my age (like myself) are renting with room mates to save money. This risk exists, I can’t predict what will happen, but this is the Panda thinking out loud.
Conclusion/Disclaimers
RKT lends people money, have been expanding their business model, and mortgage and refinancing demand are both higher YoY despite the pandemic. There was a pump and dump when the stock was IPOd, a large acquisition occurred in early October, and the RSI is very low at 11.21. RKTs balance sheet looked good *with caution as there is nothing to compare it to*. Very bullish, goal is to be assigned below $25 via shortting puts, wheel to price target of $45 dollars by December 31, 2021.
DISCLAIMERS: I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER, DO YOUR OWN DD. ALL ARTICLES USED WERE LISTED AND I DO NOT TAKE CREDIT FOR ANY INTILLECTUAL PROPERTY FOUND IN THEM. RKT 10Q USED (https://sec.report/Document/0001805284-20-000032/#i7282b9dc008a4dcdbc9484f2cca41818_64)
submitted by ThePandaisInsane to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2020.11.19 17:56 MiamiSlice [USA] [H] Games for Nintendo and Sony systems, Nintendo Powers, Strategy Guides, collectibles [W] Kirby's Dream Land 2 CIB, Mario Party 2 box, Etrian Odyssey Nexus cart, more games in list

I have a lot of new items since my last post! Right now I am mostly looking for the wants I have listed below, especially the high priority stuff, but I may be open to offers. Just please do not be offended if I say no!
p.s. "CIB" means complete, as in including all the booklets and such that were supposed to come in there, otherwise I will clarify what is included. "NIB" means New In Box, aka sealed, "brand new," in the shrink, etc.
p.p.s. If we are going to trade, all I ask is please be honest about the condition of your items. I can provide pictures for anything I have, please be willing to do the same! Thanks!

HAVE

Switch games, cards
3DS consoles, games, accessories
3DS boxes and manuals (no games)
DS console, games and accessories
DS boxes and manuals (no games)
GBA games and videos
GBC games and more
GB games and more
GB manuals (no games)
Wii U games and packaging
Wii games and accessories
GameCube games, accessories and packaging
N64
N64 manuals
NES games and accessories
PS3 boxes and manuals (no games)
PS2 games
PS2 boxes and manuals (no games)
PSX games
PSX boxes and manuals (no games)
IBM Tandy
PC
Strategy guides
Nintendo Power Issues
Some pictures here, more available on request
Collectibles and posters
Comic Books
Random Stuff

WANT

The high priority stuff:
Lower priority:
Limited Print Switch Games (prefer CIB, also fine with Best Buy retail versions when applicable)
Retail Switch Games
Wii U Games
Wii Games
GameCube games
3DS Games
DS Games
GBA
GBC
Game Boy
PS3 Games
Strategy Guides
submitted by MiamiSlice to gameswap [link] [comments]


2020.11.19 03:31 Ralts_Bloodthorne First Contact - Third Wave - Chapter 366

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NEBULA-STEAM LOGIN
USER NAME>Da'amo'o_The_Magician
PASSWORD (Never share you password. Neb-Steam Customer Service Will NEVER ask you for your password): [email protected]$$w0rd
Welcome, Da'amo'o the Magician. You have 14 new messages and one Urgent Message.
View Normal Messages?
>N
View Urgent Message?
>Y
FROM: NEBULA-STEAM STARLIGHT PROGRAM
TO: Great Most High of Planetary Maintenance Da'amo'o
Your submitted game "Terran Maintenance Attack Simulator" has been reviewed by our Quality and Standards Team as well as undergone our six day playtest system. Your recent patch 0.4.1.A2.a (Food Dispenser Update) was received and applied.
We are proud to announce to you that your game, "Terran Maintenance Attack Simulator" has been approved for sale on Nebula-Steam as part of the Starlight Program, which seeks to amplify the reach of indie developers such as yourself.
Simply go to your Developer's Page and follow the instructions. Remember to upload both your 2D and 3DVR game cover art as well as double-check your splash-page stinger for translation errors.
At this time, you are approved for Early Access Release, Alpha Test Release, Beta Test Release, or Full Release.
Additional options are available to you for release of your media as well as advertising your media.
Once again, we here at Nebula-Steam would like to welcome you to our Starlight Program and we look forward to working with you.
--The Digitally Simulated Brain of Gabe Newell, Nebula-Steam LLC
Would you like to see your Developers Page and Tools?
>Y
---------------------
Great Most High of Planetary Maintenance Da'amo'o galloped around the relaxation lawn behind the Planetary Maintenance Facility, feeling his chest swell with an unidentified emotion. He knew that upstairs, on his computer, files were being uploaded to Nebula-Steam, rolling out the Early-Access Release of what had started as a mere way of passing the time.
Neo-sapients stared at him as he galloped around, but merely smiled to one another. Da'amo'o was known to be a bit eccentric for a Lanaktallan, but he authorized plenty of overtime, divided up maintenance across the planet into zones where one had to travel very little to reach a work order, and had even broken open the stores and allowed neo-sapients to use government vehicles rather than take public transportation to job sites.
Why, he had even authorized uniforms that displayed that a neo-sapient worked for Planetary Maintenance, complete with badges of ranks and coloration that displayed what part of Maintenance they worked for.
One of the Savashan sitting on a bench eating a sandwich (with actual RealMeatTM in it) had been accosted by LawSec two weeks ago. Most High Da'amo'o had arrived personally to release him from the jail cell, took back the tools, chastised the LawSec Commander, and then, weirdly enough, when heating failed to all of the LawSec Officer's offices, had put the repairs on low priority.
As far as that Savashan was concerned, if Da'amo'o wanted to run in circles wearing a purple paper hat and blowing a musical instrument, the Savashan would defend Da'amo'o's right to do so.
Da'amo'o himself was sweating and blowing heavy, his heart still full of something he couldn't describe, as he leaned into the corner he was running around. He couldn't believe it, it was too incredible, too outlandish.
He had logged into his "Developer Options" page on Nebula Steam and carefully read through the contract. It was mind-boggling. It was outrageous.
He retained full control of his program. All rights to it.
Nebula-Steam would host it on their servers, even offered the option for hosting of multi-player servers, and only asked for FORTY PERCENT! of the take. It was outrageous.
Then, he had discovered he could release different versions as long as they were functionally different. He had spent nearly a week coding heavily, allowing the VI 'supervisors' to handle the basic maintenance, and had come up with multiple versions of his game.
Why, he'd be getting six credits out of ten! He had set the price of one hundred twenty credits for the full version, sixty credits for the limited version, eighty credits for the multiplayer, forty-credits for the "Food Dispenser Panic!" DLC (what a wonderful concept. Downloadable content that could just be patched into the game, changing the game, updating it, without having to completely redo it! Just the thought of such a remarkable idea made Da'amo'o quiver with excitement), and the five ten-credit "World Map Packs" and the "City Procedural Generation Software" that was available as a free download to anyone who owned the 'Executor Freakout' version. Then there was the "Building Artpack" for various planets and species, even including a special building relevant to each species, for only five credits, that came bundled in the "Executor Freakout" version. Not to mention the Demo that would unlock into the limited version if a neo-sapient put in their worker ID number.
He had, at first, ensured the settings were put right so that his implant would be pinged for each sale. In the beginning, there was only a handful of pings the first few hours. Then more. Then even more. Until his implant couldn't keep up.
He was terrified to look into his Nebula-Steam wallet.
There was a shimmering in the air and he slowed down, coming to a stop and panting. He tapped the shimmer and a VR representation of a door appeared.
The Pink Panty Fairy stepped through, wearing her new outfit that he'd carefully designed for her. It was modeled after Terran "power suits'. Not the combat kind, no, the kind that projected authority and dominance, consisting of a pair of shined high heeled boots, slacks with creases on the front of the legs, and an official looking torso covering with long sleeves and cufflinks. She wore a pink sash that displayed that she was Da'amo'o's personal assistant and operated with his full authority.
Da'amo'o had carefully gone over Terran images of powerful females and what they wore. He had agonized over current fashions, dressing properly for various jobs, and other media.
He had eventually settled on a modification of the Space Force female Terran uniform, complete with sash.
"You made Gold, Da'amo'o, baby," she said, her glittering iridescent wings twitching. "Ten million sales in the last two hours."
Da'amo'o shuffled nervously.
"Even your map packs, the DLC, and the Executor Freakout versions are firmly in the Gold status," she said. She lifted up a clipboard and looked at it. "At current projections, you should hit Platinum within a week. Returns are less than two percent. Your rating is 'Oustandingly Positive' and average customer engagement on first playthrough is three hours."
Da'amo'o nodded, reaching into his pouch and pulling out a wad of carefully harvested expensive cud. He jammed it in his mouth and slowly began chewing it, thinking. He had been thinking of adding a "Work Crew Supervisor Expansion Pack" where a being could take on the role of a supervisor and move through a procedurally generated building to watch over the neo-sapients as they worked.
If the game was doing that well, he might have to adapt the old public domain software that generated dungeons that he had found on a code repository site. Combining it with the shopping trip simulator software that he had found abandoned might work...
"Currently, using proxy servers to upload the game mean that the majority of purchasers and interested parties think that the game was developed and uploaded from Hesstla, which still has a high Lanaktallan population despite being nominally under Terran control," she said. She lowered the clipboard and it vanished.
"So, Da'amo'o, baby, what's your plan now?" the Pink Secretary asked.
Da'amo'o trotted toward the door that would lead to the elevator that would take him to his office. "What's my schedule look like?"
The Pink Secretary looked at another clipboard. "Clear for the next two days. That's when you have scheduled an inspection of the worker's maintenance vehicles."
Da'a'mo'o nodded. That gave him an idea. "Maintenance Street Racing" where the players could race bulky, unresponsive cargo vehicles and tool vans through city streets to a job, competing with other maintenance teams to reach the contract and clock in first.
He quickly mentally jotted a note and passed it to his datalink to pass it to his console.
Perhaps have the wild card where overpowered flaming Terran vehicles attempt to run the maintenance crew vehicle off the road? he thought.
"How is the reference gathering for Project Blah Bleh Blah going?" he asked her.
She consulted a datapad. "Not well. Mostly we've had to use police sketches and mockups as well as video taken from Gal-Net."
Damnation and tarnation, as a Treana'ad cattle rustler would say, Da'amo'o thought to himself. He had ridden home in a limousine one foggy night, staring out the window, and had gotten the idea to create an entertainment game completely based on fiction, starring the Night Terran.
But he was having a hard time gathering concrete data on the elusive figure.
"You asked me to remind you about tonight, baby," the Pink Secretary said.
"The motion capture actors," Da'amo'o stated. He stopped and waited for the elevator.
The neo-sapients and a few female Lanaktallan were supposed to arrive at his domicile for dinner and then motion capture. He was planning on rewarding them handsomely.
Credits bought more cooperation than his rank, and he had learned to appreciate it.
In the elevator he brought up data on his retinal link, examining it. Most of what he wanted was available on the public domain software repositories. He'd gained an eye for being able to determine if the software might be usable. If it contained extensive documentation, it would be easily usable.
If it did not, there might be hidden gems within in, but by and large, the programmer would have been deceased for tens of thousands of years.
An idea for another entertainment simulation bubbled up in his mind and he clapped his lower hands together excitedly even as he made notes on his datalink.
True, most of his ideas would prove to be unworkable or not as exciting as he had thought at the time, but for every score that had be discarded one would provide the kernel of a great idea.
The door opened and he trotted down the hallway. Opening the door to his office he nodded at the Ikeeki receptionist, who professionally ignored him as she applied dye to the very tips of her pinfeathers with a small brush. She was wearing the finest clothing, her plumage was lush and lavish, and her jewelry sparkled in the light of the office.
Just her appearance had been enough to put many complaining Lanaktallan in their place. The fact that she was so pampered and lavished upon told all Lanaktallan that she was more valued by Great Most High of Planetary Maintenance Da'amo'o then they ever possibly would be.
He sat down in his comfortable chair and waited for the backrest and armrests to rotate into position. He checked his real maintenance program, not his entertainment one, and authorized overtime, dispatched work crews, and scheduled time off for his crews.
Once he had spent two hours working, he had a break and leaned back in his chair, slowly chewing the expensive cud.
He had an idea.
Logging back onto Nebula-Steam, he perused the Terran Confederacy stores, using a proxy server to pretend he was logging in from one of the Confederacy controlled worlds.
He knew he had seen it briefly. Now he was sure.
Ah-Cheev-Munts.
He said the word slowly, savoring it.
Checking one of the most popular games, he then ran a search to see who was playing the game that had at least twenty hours into it. It was a popular game, a magical primitivism simulation where a user could fight fantastic creatures, romance attractive and unattractive beings, explore ruins and wilderness while wielding steel weapons or magic.
There it was.
Pinned Achievements.
He examined it closely. Terrans prized the most difficult achievements. Some achievements had been acquired by less than 0.0001% of those with at least 10 hours in the game. Such achievements as "I Tawt I Saw a Puddy-Tat" for fighting a giant saber-toothed cat with only a flint knife in a blizzard during the full moon while only wearing wolf-skin armor and a hat made from yellow bird feathers. Or the achievement "Chrome Lips Sink Ships" for any Battleship Gunner's Mate rating five or higher who killed at least one enemy vessel as their own ship was being destroyed and choosing to respawn in the ship's clone bank and return to their station even as the ship broke up.
Da'amo'o checked his schedule. He still had six hours he had to be at his desk. He checked the work program. The only thing that needed his attention was a Wandering Terran had set plants ablaze in a park in eVR enhanced reality and the maintenance team needed a Level III Exorcism team. He authorized it and closed the program.
What if I could make it a status symbol? he thought. Sashes proclaimed various ranks and awards, but if one had a retinal link, like any proper gamer (R-Link Lyfe Yo!) , then a being's 'gamer tag' as well as their Nebula-Steam Rank appeared in your vision when you looked at another gamer who was broadcasting his ID.
By nightfall, he realized he'd been in his office till almost dinner. He rushed home, hosted the fancy dinner, then used his motion capture equipment to record various beings doing mundane tasks, right down to washing dishes by hand. He paid everyone, then galloped down the hallway to a solid battlesteel door.
He quivered with excitement when his Gal-Net link cut off. The electronic warfare system he had managed to get transferred to him via a long looping shipping circuit kept anyone from accessing what was beyond the door from outside.
The door cracked open, white light appearing. He quivered with excitement. He had taken the visuals from exciting Terran games and he had to admit, it was psychologically powerful.
He trotted into what was beyond. What had been a wine cellar had been built, off the books, by heavily bribed neo-sapient work crews that he had paid in cred-sticks, promotions, and prestigious employment locations.
His programming lab.
Full eVI assist. Enhanced Virtual Reality.
He had modeled it after Vehicle Repairbeing v823 that he had managed to get onto his account.
He rubbed his hands together as he activated his assistants.
The girls from that wonderfully subversive program appeared, all working hard, with the exception of the red-head, who sat in the corner reading a magazine and smoking a cigarette, giving him a haughty look as she smoothed her black and red plaid skirt with one hand.
He worked far into the night, going to bed only after the Pink Programming Assistant Fairy woke him up for the third time.
Still, success.
He had done it.
He, Great Most High of Planetary Maintenance Da'amo'o, had managed to complete the impossible!
When he trotted into work the next day, everyone could see scrolling on his sash the fact that he had platinum Nebula-Steam achievement awards, that his sash edging wasn't a straight line but was, instead, a flickering violet and pink flame pattern.
Da'amo'o could feel the envy of his lessers as they gazed in awe at the achievements displayed on his sash.
Any being could get attendance and good parking awards for their sash.
When he finished the morning's required maintenance he leaned back in his chair and pressed the eVR button.
The Pink Secretary Fairy appeared, holding a clipboard.
"How's it hanging, Da'amo'o, baby?" she asked, smiling.
"You tell me, dear one," Da'amo'o replied.
She looked at her clipboard. "The Retinal Link Nebula-Steam Account Interlink has gone platinum. The Sash link is the same," she smiled widely. "Nebula-Steam approved your proposal that only icons that match your specifications can be used as a basis for the award displays."
Da'amo'o rubbed his hands together. "And how many software entertainment organizations have purchased the icon and software packages I offered them?"
"All of them, Da'armo'o, baby," she replied.
"Excellent," Da'amo'o said.
"Already Dewie, Cheatum, and Howe have successfully defended your proprietary programming and styles," she said. She consulted her datapad. "They have been paid in full for their services and put on retainer."
"Excellent," Da'amo'o said. He thought for a long moment, swinging around to stare out the window. "I need another assistant, someone to assist me in this job to free me for my true passion."
The Pink Secretary Fairy frowned slightly. "Which is?"
Da'amo'o motioned with all four hands out the window. "To make work into something enjoyable. To use VR and Gal-Net to provide a sense of accomplishment that seems to have been stripped from real life."
He rubbed his hands together.
"To give everyone a sense of achievement."
----------------------
Forty-Second Assistant Most High of Food Processors Ga'ame'er clopped into the lunch room of the massive building that housed licensing. He adjusted his sash and ensured his retinal link ID header was on as he crossed the room to the line waiting to order lunch.
He realized that in front of him was a Lanaktallan who had their gamertag, Nebula-Steam score, and achievements displayed on their expensive and fashionable sash as well as over their head.
The Lanaktallan, who's sash proclaimed him a twelfth Most High, had only silver achievements.
Ga'ame'er reached forward and tapped the other Lanaktallan on the side. The Lanaktallan turned, frowning, looking a Ga'ame'er.
"Move, lowly one," Ga'ame'er said, reaching up and tapping his sash.
The Twelfth Most High of Traffic Supervision Pehza'ahnt started to lift his lip and then saw the top ranking achievement far outstripped anything he had accomplished.
Feeling shame before one of his peers, he moved out of the way, letting Ga'ame'er take his place.
Pehza'ahnt ground his cud and promised himself that he would grind extra-hard that night. That achievement flaunted by Ga'ame'er would be his.
Oh yes, oh yes it would be.
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submitted by Ralts_Bloodthorne to HFY [link] [comments]


2020.11.17 21:13 subreddit_stats Subreddit Stats: zen posts from 2020-08-18 to 2020-11-16 16:10 PDT

Period: 89.69 days
Submissions Comments
Total 771 34521
Rate (per day) 8.60 380.28
Unique Redditors 193 913
Combined Score 9258 63832

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 886 points, 43 submissions: Coinionaire
    1. BIG Zen Questions — CLEAR Answers: Don't ever say it's a confusing topic! (85 points, 135 comments)
    2. A Reminder — People practicing the Way are like 🐔 incubating 🥚 (53 points, 35 comments)
    3. Identical Twins on a Zen Journey — one no gain, one loss (45 points, 60 comments)
    4. Zen Cringefest: 281 Answers to Koans? Not worthy of a Book Report! — But there's a disgusting twist worth exposing for what it is. (43 points, 100 comments)
    5. Chinese Proverbs & Idioms (42 points, 18 comments)
    6. How about when the end of your life comes? (42 points, 77 comments)
    7. Enlightenment Verses #1 - Wuzu Fayan (1024-1104) (36 points, 18 comments)
    8. What if the road of mind is cut off? A bird does not mind. (36 points, 54 comments)
    9. Zhaozhou's enlightenment — a 'new translation' experiment (35 points, 48 comments)
    10. You must smash the model of the ancients. Discern who helps and who reinforces. (31 points, 413 comments)
  2. 649 points, 61 submissions: transmission_of_mind
    1. Stop talking, stop thinking. (58 points, 67 comments)
    2. Ryokan. Zen poet and wandering monk. (49 points, 114 comments)
    3. No need to seek truth. (45 points, 38 comments)
    4. Fear of the void (36 points, 45 comments)
    5. Enlighten yourself. (35 points, 97 comments)
    6. Nothing to grasp. (30 points, 84 comments)
    7. A little Huineng to start the day. (29 points, 36 comments)
    8. Bodhidharma. (27 points, 235 comments)
    9. If Zen is just eating, drinking, sitting and pissing, why all the endless literature and interpretation? (26 points, 98 comments)
    10. Preferences. (21 points, 107 comments)
  3. 644 points, 57 submissions: ewk
    1. Zen is not Gradual: No methods, practices, no farther shore (41 points, 137 comments)
    2. What are you here to discuss? (37 points, 203 comments)
    3. A review of Baizhang's Enlightenment: What dependence on a past experience? (32 points, 163 comments)
    4. What does a settled mind look like? Camping out under the eaves. (31 points, 120 comments)
    5. The Real Shobogenzo: I'll tell thee everything I can... there's little to relate. (26 points, 41 comments)
    6. Why are we here? (25 points, 116 comments)
    7. The Real Shobogenzo: Nothing Compares to Yangshan (22 points, 39 comments)
    8. The Real Shobogenzo: BY THE POWER OF GREYSKULL! (21 points, 65 comments)
    9. The Real Shobogenzo: Low bar for Zen Masters; they'll let anybody in (21 points, 33 comments)
    10. Meta: What is "peace" in Zen? (18 points, 200 comments)
  4. 311 points, 55 submissions: ThatKir
    1. The Key of Mind!!! (Don't miss.) (23 points, 104 comments)
    2. This Mind, This Buddha (14 points, 46 comments)
    3. The Harmony of Difference & Unity: Pt. IV (13 points, 12 comments)
    4. Buddha Stirring up Trouble (11 points, 59 comments)
    5. Flavorless & Textureless Gruel (11 points, 38 comments)
    6. Not Mind, Not Buddha (11 points, 20 comments)
    7. The House (still) in Ramshackles... (10 points, 35 comments)
    8. This Old Case (10 points, 12 comments)
    9. AVALANCHE ! ! ! (9 points, 34 comments)
    10. Following the Bird Path (9 points, 7 comments)
  5. 311 points, 10 submissions: rockytimber
    1. Don't turn your life over to zen (or a teacher, or an institution, or an idea, or a book, or a god, or to anything) (70 points, 186 comments)
    2. No Deal Zen. Nothing gets done. Agree, and I'll kick you. Disagree and take a blow. (66 points, 24 comments)
    3. The Mind Fuck that pretends to be zen: getting people to obsess over inside and outside, getting people to feel guilty about choosing the Way (58 points, 179 comments)
    4. Reason is ultimately a subset of pretend. Sure, it has its place, but does it pass the gateless gate? (29 points, 96 comments)
    5. Do the zen characters raise moral issues, or its it more the case that some readers project moral issues on the zen characters? (26 points, 161 comments)
    6. Does an enlightened master have an advantage in zen seeing over anyone else? How about a head monk? How about anyone? (21 points, 34 comments)
    7. Pointing does not imply we have an understanding of what we are pointing at. (18 points, 36 comments)
    8. Buddha Nature as a Quantum State (Friday night humor edition) (11 points, 45 comments)
    9. Change My View: Causal determinism and the conclusions of neuroscience that free will does not exist are incompatible with zen seeing. (6 points, 147 comments)
    10. Winning and losing: when 500 lifetimes as a fox at stake. (6 points, 42 comments)
  6. 252 points, 1 submission: tubby_tustard
    1. wtf is this sub (252 points, 601 comments)
  7. 211 points, 26 submissions: CultAwarenessNetwork
    1. [Shameles] Sayings of Joshu #172: 172 (22 points, 100 comments)
    2. Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #175: 175 (16 points, 15 comments)
    3. Can you make a mirror by polishing a tile? Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #614: 614 (15 points, 104 comments)
    4. The other bondage: Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #374: 374 (14 points, 88 comments)
    5. Sakyamuni vs Indra: Zen Master Yunmen #119: 119 (12 points, 153 comments)
    6. We gonna chase those crazy bald heads out of town (Bob Marley): Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #162: 162 (11 points, 59 comments)
    7. How can you say you have no mind?? Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #354: 354 (10 points, 3 comments)
    8. The Zen (esoteric) Teachings of Lin-Chi (Linji) #16: 16 (10 points, 47 comments)
    9. Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #188: 188 (10 points, 7 comments)
    10. Treasury of the Eye of True Teaching #58: 58 (10 points, 31 comments)
  8. 194 points, 15 submissions: PaladinBen
    1. Friday Night Power Trip (24 points, 31 comments)
    2. Friday Night Poetry Slam (20 points, 24 comments)
    3. Friday Night Poetry Slam (18 points, 45 comments)
    4. Friday Night Poetry Slam (17 points, 144 comments)
    5. Friday Night Poetry Slam (16 points, 30 comments)
    6. Friday Night Poetry Slam (16 points, 34 comments)
    7. Friday Night Poetry Slam (13 points, 9 comments)
    8. Friday Night Poetry Slam (13 points, 28 comments)
    9. FRIDAY NIGHT POETRY SLAM (12 points, 29 comments)
    10. Friday Night Poetry Slam (12 points, 15 comments)
  9. 185 points, 9 submissions: mortonslast
    1. Neither coming nor going. (44 points, 44 comments)
    2. AMA (26 points, 117 comments)
    3. Chi'ing Ming Finally Makes A Monkey out of You (26 points, 52 comments)
    4. Huangbo’s Thief (23 points, 51 comments)
    5. Enlightenment is for suckers. (22 points, 81 comments)
    6. Linji on rudeness. Hot sauce anyone? (16 points, 264 comments)
    7. Piss & shit: a play within a play (10 points, 23 comments)
    8. Right dharma (10 points, 18 comments)
    9. Beware the Devil/Buddha... (8 points, 8 comments)
  10. 172 points, 8 submissions: OrdinaryArges
    1. Are you enlightened? (38 points, 142 comments)
    2. Zen Compassion: Do you think we are mean or rude here on zen? That there is a cult at work, or gatekeeping? Come see why. (37 points, 104 comments)
    3. The essential method for sudden enlightenment (24 points, 31 comments)
    4. Having nothing to do (19 points, 23 comments)
    5. Keys of Zen Mind pt.1 (16 points, 56 comments)
    6. Seeking (14 points, 21 comments)
    7. The Whole Elephant or The Whole Ox (13 points, 4 comments)
    8. Seeking without seeking (11 points, 30 comments)
  11. 152 points, 10 submissions: sje397
    1. Deshan Identifies Fake Teachers (28 points, 72 comments)
    2. Foyan - Same Reality, Different Dreams (22 points, 27 comments)
    3. Why no beard? (20 points, 64 comments)
    4. The action of people on the Way is like fire melting ice - it never becomes ice again (19 points, 41 comments)
    5. Zhaozhou - Dance! (14 points, 13 comments)
    6. Lighting a golden lamp at noon. - Treasury of the Eye 316... And a short introduction to formal logic. (13 points, 32 comments)
    7. The Final Good (13 points, 57 comments)
    8. Zen 101 - Not Two (9 points, 70 comments)
    9. Affirmation and Negation - Eye of the True Teaching 78 (7 points, 15 comments)
    10. Dahui - "Today I have explained to you without trying to avoid being censured everywhere; to serve infinite lands with this profound heart is called requiting the blessings of Buddha." (7 points, 17 comments)
  12. 150 points, 13 submissions: UExis
    1. P’ang: Well-versed in the Buddha-way, I go the non-Way (25 points, 35 comments)
    2. Hsin Hsin Ming Ming Hsin Ming Hsin (22 points, 18 comments)
    3. Xin Xin Ming again 1 of ? (21 points, 164 comments)
    4. Foyan Just This Part two (16 points, 88 comments)
    5. Xin Xin Ming again 2 of ? (15 points, 36 comments)
    6. Another P’ang Verse UExis Repost (9 points, 5 comments)
    7. Xin Xin Ming again 3 of ? (9 points, 4 comments)
    8. P’ang Reminder UExis Repost Suffering, Weeping. (8 points, 44 comments)
    9. Are faithful about Zen? (7 points, 45 comments)
    10. UExis AMA (6 points, 126 comments)
  13. 129 points, 7 submissions: TFnarcon9
    1. Hey zen, we wrote you a Podcast (32 points, 132 comments)
    2. Koan Of The Week: Ewk (23 points, 47 comments)
    3. Falling For Frogs (17 points, 25 comments)
    4. Koan of The Week: u/Uexis (17 points, 29 comments)
    5. The Family Tree (17 points, 24 comments)
    6. Koan Of The Week: Sje397 (14 points, 41 comments)
    7. Koan Of The Week: Duct_Dodgers (9 points, 8 comments)
  14. 128 points, 1 submission: indiadamjones
    1. AI summarizes Buddhist philosophy in one paragraph, recommends ordinary mind to get through 2020. (128 points, 55 comments)
  15. 125 points, 5 submissions: wrrdgrrl
    1. Heroically Working in the Darkness [Repost] (53 points, 74 comments)
    2. Unemployed Zhao Zhou (25 points, 59 comments)
    3. Being in the World Without Misery [repost] (18 points, 85 comments)
    4. Blue Cliff Record #82: Ta Lung's Hard and Fast Body of Reality (18 points, 44 comments)
    5. One woman, two translators (11 points, 69 comments)
  16. 117 points, 18 submissions: forgothebeat
    1. Sayings of Joshu #63: 63 (15 points, 22 comments)
    2. The Whole Earth is Medicine #87 BCR (12 points, 28 comments)
    3. Blue Cliff Record #26 Baizhang Sits on the Great Sublime Peak (10 points, 6 comments)
    4. What makes a Zen Master in 5 words (9 points, 110 comments)
    5. #16. Bells and Robes (8 points, 15 comments)
    6. Where is the way? (8 points, 39 comments)
    7. Off with their heads! Foyan Speaks! (7 points, 33 comments)
    8. Buddhist this, Zen that (6 points, 105 comments)
    9. Let's talk (6 points, 68 comments)
    10. Blue Cliff Record #72 Huang Po's Gobblers of Dregs (5 points, 8 comments)
  17. 115 points, 13 submissions: ZEROGR33N
    1. [X-Post] [HuangBo] What is real Zen study like? (15 points, 16 comments)
    2. [BOS] Case 47: The (In)Famous Tree (14 points, 33 comments)
    3. A Slice of Serenity -- * When the moon hits your eye, like a big pizza pie, that's the dharma! * (12 points, 14 comments)
    4. [BOS] Case 42; What Smells Like Dry Fish? (12 points, 27 comments)
    5. [WanSong] The Essence of Zen (11 points, 9 comments)
    6. [ZhaoZhou] [Elder Ding] Zen Bridges to Nowhere (11 points, 25 comments)
    7. [Kashyapa] Kashyapa! Kashyapa! Wherefore art thou Kashyapa?! (10 points, 19 comments)
    8. [LinJi] --Blowing Minds-- (8 points, 27 comments)
    9. The Legend of PuHua (7 points, 11 comments)
    10. [BCR] -- Suddenly, Suddenly -- (5 points, 9 comments)
  18. 105 points, 4 submissions: Temicco
    1. How to put an end to samsara (56 points, 253 comments)
    2. Zen Exegesis: the heights and the depths (28 points, 87 comments)
    3. Green flies on shit (14 points, 39 comments)
    4. The moment of death (7 points, 58 comments)
  19. 104 points, 5 submissions: hookdump
    1. How to avoid getting a finger cut off. (27 points, 32 comments)
    2. Just This - Instant Zen (29/49) - Foyan (27 points, 51 comments)
    3. Keep Evolving - Instant Zen (30/49) - Foyan (22 points, 138 comments)
    4. ama (19 points, 63 comments)
    5. Question about the language and culture of Zen Masters (9 points, 55 comments)

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2020.11.13 22:14 jw_mentions /r/iamatotalpieceofshit - "As someone who used to be a JW, please help this gain more attention"

I am a bot! Please send NotListeningItsABook a private message with any comments or feedback on how I work.
EDIT: As of Sun Nov 15 18:00:55 UTC 2020, the post is at [2535pts49c]

About Post:

--- --- Notes
Submission As someone who used to be a JW, please help this gain more attention
Comments As someone who used to be a JW, please help this gain more attention
Author UnsettlingAura
Subreddit /iamatotalpieceofshit
Posted On Fri Nov 13 18:02:26 UTC 2020
Score 2535 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:55 UTC 2020
Total Comments 76

Post Body:

n/a - not a self post

Related Comments (49):

--- --- Notes
Author Jouzu
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:24:39 UTC 2020
Score 19 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:08 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link
Yep, they are eagerly awaiting the killing of 99.9% of humankind, only they will survive Armageddon. The birds will eat the flesh of the unbelievers I think, heck of a clean up job otherwise... Imagine the immense joy of washing through piles of dead kids, yeah, that is whatJWs hope for.
--- --- Notes
Author kiwi_scorpio
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:50:45 UTC 2020
Score 150 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:10 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 13
Body link
I'm a nurse here in New Zealand and if a pregnant JW has to have a caesarean section we have to set up a special suction unit called a cell saver. We suction up their blood as they proceed with the surgery and it gets filtered and put back into the patient. I've also been in situations where a JW has said to the doctor in front of their family members that they don't want blood, but as soon as they are away from their family members they let the doctor know that in fact they will have whatever will save their life.
--- --- Notes
Author sactownox22
Posted On Fri Nov 13 20:51:30 UTC 2020
Score 26 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:12 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 7
Body link
So, only 1.7% of the google-estimated total of 8.4 millionJWs worldwide get to the promised land? That is some stiff competition.
--- --- Notes
Author Havamar
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:06:57 UTC 2020
Score 25 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:13 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
It's self-reported as "only they will know". They only have 144,000 seats in heaven available. The rest of the plebs are going to live forever on a paradise earth, after they clean up the 8 billion bodies after God kills everyone that isn't a JW at "Armageddon".
Any time I ever saw any "annointed" the other church members were talking behind their backs saying that they didn't really think they were.
It's kinda funny, and an oddly brutal belief system.
--- --- Notes
Author arrian-
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:43:20 UTC 2020
Score 187 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:17 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 18
Body link
well its not only with childbirth, theJW's have highlighted cases where children who need blood transfusions to live were taught to reject them by their parents because its "disrespectful to god"
their whole blood doctrine is complete bullshit, they say that you can't use blood because it represents life and if you *eat* blood you're disrespecting God's authority and disrespecting life. Which makes no sense, because if you respected life you'd give someone a blood transfusion if they needed it to live.
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Author YouDontKnowMe2017
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:37:50 UTC 2020
Score 13 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:18 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 1
Body link
They’re pieces of shit: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/09/795019348/montana-court-reverses-35-million-child-abuse-verdict-against-`jehovahs-witnesses`
--- --- Notes
Author Vorian23
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:59:51 UTC 2020
Score 15 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:18 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 0
Body link
That’s exactly what they do https://freedomofmind.com/the-bite-model-and-`jehovahs-witnesses`/
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Author cookingismything
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:15:42 UTC 2020
Score 30 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:19 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 1
Body link
I was never a JW but my husband was raised in the religion. My gut is saying the answer to your question is pretty simple. THEY DO NOT EVER WANT TO INVOLVE THE POLICE. You see, they take care of any little issues themselves. If there is a problem, you reach out to an elder or elders (those are the respected male leaders of their congregation) and they are so wide that they will know what to do. I’m so sorry for this young girl. My husband knows so many that have killed themselves because of this cult
--- --- Notes
Author madgraffics
Posted On Fri Nov 13 20:12:52 UTC 2020
Score 248 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:20 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
Is your mom my mom? I got raised in that shit and my abuser was found guilty in a court of law but not disfellowshipped but my mom still thinks this is the end all b e all of religions (:

Edit: meant to put not not now
--- --- Notes
Author U-Cranium
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:38:37 UTC 2020
Score 211 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:25 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 16
Body link
Not only this, Jehovah's Witness have a book they produce that's full of pictures of kids and stories of how they bravely chose to die instead of accept a transfusion. Fucking disgusting cult,happy I got out
--- --- Notes
Author wanderingwomb
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:59:24 UTC 2020
Score 170 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:28 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 11
Body link
Knowing the cult I’m willing to bet after gaslighting her that it was consensual they then disfellowshipped her for having sex outside of marriage.
--- --- Notes
Author sashay33
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:33:45 UTC 2020
Score 8 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:29 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 1
Body link
exjw is a wealth of info
--- --- Notes
Author LurkerTryingToTalk
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:24:58 UTC 2020
Score 18 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:31 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 10
Body link
Freemasons describe their organization as a society with secrets, not a secret society.
Their buildings are not hidden, people are proud to be members and let people know. They mostly just do community service and stupid rituals. You can look up all their rituals online and they've been known for ages.
Fun fact, the Boy Scouts was started by Freemasons based on their principles as a sort of youth division.
Jehovah Witnesses are totally crazy.
Freemasons are mostly OK. In the UK you don't have to believe in a god to join but you do in the USA. Freemasons existed long before Jehovah Witnesses.
--- --- Notes
Author razzyboss1
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:34:31 UTC 2020
Score 31 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:31 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 0
Body link
Yep definetly. My grandma (a JW) needed a blood transfusion during her surgery and a fucking JW president or something from her "church" insisted he'd be in the room to make sure she won't get a blood transfusion. Luckily the doctor didn't allow him and we had to (i'll probably get backlash for this but fuck it, might as well be honest) bribe the doctor to make sure he will do whatever is necessary to keep her safe. Fortunately the surgery was a success and she is doing much better now in case you're wondering!
--- --- Notes
Author jaffakree83
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:37:36 UTC 2020
Score 57 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:34 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 35
Body link
Heh, my dad busted out the Bible and got into a religious debate with a JW and they never came around again.
--- --- Notes
Author firegato
Posted On Fri Nov 13 23:44:18 UTC 2020
Score 82 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:35 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 20
Body link
Hold up. Jesus was like: "yo this wine is like my blood and shit. Pass it around and drink it." so... (I know dogma doesn't have to make sense) how in the F you gonna, through conjecture, arrive at such a Ludacris conclusion?JWs make up silly rules, that's why I'm glad I left that organization.
--- --- Notes
Author brb_on_a_quest
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:23:54 UTC 2020
Score 23 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:36 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 4
Body link
Ex-jw here also. Am disfellowshipped. I wish I could say this shit surprised me, but it’s par for the course. I think the JW’s are generally considered a joke, but it’s a dangerous and damaging cult.
--- --- Notes
Author BooceAlmighty
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:11:21 UTC 2020
Score 14 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:37 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
It's always super old guys with the Jehovah's Witnesses in my area who've been going door to door. Except for the one time they started sending REALLY pretty girls together with an old man waiting nearby.
That was the only time I've purposely answered the door for Jehovah's Witnesses.
--- --- Notes
Author ByCrookedSteps781
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:25:38 UTC 2020
Score 29 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:37 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 0
Body link
I would gladly beat the fuck outta that peice of shit, I used to be part of it till 5 or 6 untill my mum got disfellowshipped as a result of them finding out she had me out of wedlock, all it taught me was how much hypocrisy religion spews out. 28 years later my aunty who grew up JW and left after her marriage broke down only to become a lesbian hippy, all of a sudden decides she is no longer lesbian, renounces her former life and goes back to the church. Life is a weird experience.
--- --- Notes
Author drunkennudeles
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:45:09 UTC 2020
Score 8 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:39 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 6
Body link
Once the last person is admitted then theJWs rise from the grave to take this world for themselves while everyone else perished.
They also do communion but only people going to heaven drink it so they just pass a cup around the room with "jesus' blood" in it.
--- --- Notes
Author CaterwaulOfDoom
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:12:30 UTC 2020
Score 15 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:40 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link
Many Christians dispute the idea that Jehovah's Witnesses are Christian because they don't believe that Jesus is God.
--- --- Notes
Author Yurak_Huntmate
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:25:07 UTC 2020
Score 358 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:48 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 61
Body link
My mum got our house blacklisted by the jehovahs witnesses because she brought up the blood transfusion thing, she asked one of them if their child was dying and needed one would they give them it, they replied no, so she went off on them calling them scum, they never returned to our house
--- --- Notes
Author uneducatedexpert
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:23:35 UTC 2020
Score 35 as of Sun Nov 15 17:59:49 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link
I was raised as a JW. I started getting molested at 6 by an older cousin. That continued until the age of 9, under threat, until I was able to gain the courage to tell my parents. They didn’t get me help as it would have brought reproach against god. At age 11 my maternal grandmother moved in and molested me as well, until 13. Again, there was no help. No counseling, no support and my grandmother lived in the house after this.
At 15 I made out with my dream girl and we got to heavy petting, as jw’s like to call it. We got caught as was an absolute no no to even hold hands.
I had to site for an hour with three male elders, while I described in vivid detail what we had done. The wanted to know about her wetness, my erection, if we climaxed and what was done with it. Down to the fucking detail. Yet they didn’t want to know anything about my abuse.
...
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Author aka_jr91
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:24:57 UTC 2020
Score 542 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:03 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 142
Body link
Former JW here. AllJW's are expected to sign and carry a durable power of attorney, which they also call a "no blood card." It states for you that even if you're unconscious, you still reject transfusions.
--- --- Notes
Author baconaliens
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:44:34 UTC 2020
Score 443 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:12 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 40
Body link
From the article it was just audio, happened more than once and she recorded it herself. Probably because the guy was an Elder's son so she felt she needed evidence for people to believe her and why they psychologically tortured her for hours.
I was raised a JW, my mom still is and has seen this. We actually also live in Utah, near this congregation. It is a cult and it's a shame it attracts good people like my mom and others I have met through the church.
--- --- Notes
Author lunakuuipo
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:41:55 UTC 2020
Score 36 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:12 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
Yes! This. Having to go to the other classroom during bday celebrations because my family would make sure to let my teachers know every year that we wereJWs and that I can’t do that... I felt like even more of an outsider. It’s traumatic. I know what you went through and I’m so sorry you were also subjected to this 😣
--- --- Notes
Author Empath_Wrath
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:22:47 UTC 2020
Score 171 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:14 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 16
Body link
I remember a girl in elementary school who was a JW. She never stood for the pledge or celebrated any holiday so there were days she looked absolutely dejected sitting outside the celebrations.
The worst the was during morning announcements, if it was your birthday, the entire school would sing happy birthday. Of course she had the only birthday that day, but JW don’t celebrate birthdays, so the entire school sang to her. She looked so miserable and uncomfortable, but when she started crying at the end, I think it broke everyone in class.
Fuck Jehovah’s Witnesses
Edit: we all knew in class she didn’t celebrate her birthday, but the rest of the school didn’t. So we just sat there in silence, looking at her, like kids do. The anguish is etched in my brain.
--- --- Notes
Author smutmuffin1978
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:23:04 UTC 2020
Score 43 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:15 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
These people are messed up! My BFF from high school was raised a JW. When her parents sold their house we were helping them pack and found her dad's porn in the rafters of the basement - not regular porn mind you - beastialitality porn! She said that explained why the dog hated her dad!
--- --- Notes
Author Made-upDreams
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:00:45 UTC 2020
Score 29 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:16 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 5
Body link
Seeing this is odd as I just started watching Cults and Extreme Belief on Hulu and saw their Jehovah’s Witness episode...fuck now I wish I wasn’t so nice when they kept coming to my door.
--- --- Notes
Author ralphiooo0
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:48:12 UTC 2020
Score 19 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:16 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 0
Body link
Hey! I have the almost identical story.
How did you get away with not getting baptised ? I was kinda lucky as mum wasn’t a JW.
My dad was pretty chill for an elder. I never really got any pressure to get baptised either. Was kinda like they thought it was a given but then I hit 16 and started going out and getting drunk and then I don’t think dad minded that I stopped going to church as was always a wreck.
It’s funny what you say about people being sucked in when they are down on their luck. I went to a JW bbq a few years ago and was bored as had nothing on common so started asked people what made them join. Every single one had some shitty life event. Cancer, car accident. Violent partner etc etc. then knock knock I have the answer for you.
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Author m1ssile_
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:00:54 UTC 2020
Score 20 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:17 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
I’m so sorry to hear that, the brainwashing is so sad, how can you just shun family.
I got baptized at 13, what got to me was all the hypocrisy and mind control, and by 22 I noped the heck outta there. I started hanging out with “worldly” friends, started missing a bunch of meetings, and eventually got a non-JW GF; I wasn’t disfellowshipped as far as I know, I just pretty much ghosted the church and people I had known my whole life; at the time I was young and didn’t care, I was glad to rid myself of the most judgmental people in my life. My mom is still really into the religion, but I am very lucky that she’s not fanatical, my other 2 siblings also left the church and she still speaks to us like nothings changed. It took her around 4 years or so for her to finally stop trying to get us to come back “to the truth”. I remember being an angry kid growing up in the church, once I left the change in my personality was obvious and my family noticed. Best decision I made in my life was leaving.
--- --- Notes
Author ISawHimIFoughtHim
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:58:51 UTC 2020
Score 657 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:35 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 253
Body link
There are noJWs in my country so I don't know this stuff.
Can the husband force his wife to die like that without doctors interfering? Why doesn't the wife say something?
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Author Creepy-Exit-5034
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:35:04 UTC 2020
Score 27 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:35 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 8
Body link
wait thats a thing? I used to be a JW as a kid bc my mom forced her religion onto me but I never saw any book like that
--- --- Notes
Author westfunk
Posted On Fri Nov 13 20:48:13 UTC 2020
Score 53 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:36 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 25
Body link
If Scientology and Mormonism had a baby, it would be a Jehovahs Witness.
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Author Catalyst375
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:49:41 UTC 2020
Score 84 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:38 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 13
Body link
Parents are not able to prevent their children from getting a blood transfusion. The doctors can give them the transfusion against the parents wishes. The parents will absolutely try to stop them though, and I'm sure there are plenty of example ofJWs denying life-saving transfusion.
--- --- Notes
Author UnsettlingAura
Posted On Fri Nov 13 20:19:37 UTC 2020
Score 195 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:39 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 5
Body link
There are a lot ofJWs who are in abusive relationships but cannot escape because divorce is a sin. It really is sick
--- --- Notes
Author UnsettlingAura
Posted On Fri Nov 13 20:51:40 UTC 2020
Score 9 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:40 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 5
Body link
Uugh idk how to explain it, I would say look it up but I don't want y'all giving clicks to their homepage. Try asking in exjw they should know!
--- --- Notes
Author dec44
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:21:11 UTC 2020
Score 11 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:41 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 4
Body link
Don't forget receiving blood transfusions is also forbidden. A fellow kid I was in school with who was JW had a blood disease and needed a transfusion to live. His parents said no so he died. Fuck all religions.
--- --- Notes
Author Its_daveed
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:28:29 UTC 2020
Score 116 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:41 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link
I almost died because i needed a blood transfusion but my dad was a JW and didnt want it happening but stuff happened and i ended up having a blood transfusion.
--- --- Notes
Author NOFXpunklinoleum
Posted On Fri Nov 13 19:37:59 UTC 2020
Score 927 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:48 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 61
Body link

I grew up in a JW family. Dad an elder.
This is good, and accurate. A little more information, you have to be baptized in order to be disfellowshipped. You can hang around and attend meetings, but the end game is to get you baptized so that total control can be established.
Witnesses are "nice" people. My parents' congregation gets a lot of "down on their luck" types who just attend meetings to get free meals, rides, and even job hookups. My loser uncle who due to health issues can no longer smoke, drink or do drugs started attending meetings a few years ago, my mom fixes his truck, drives him to doctor appointments, took him to Victoria for medical treatment. He barely spoke to anyone in our family his whole life, but he knew where to come for handouts.
The handouts are meant to keep the person around so they can be talked into getting baptized. Most of these people end up taking off after getting all they can outside of getting baptized, but a few get sucked right in.
A friend of mine stayed a JW for many years. His mom died when he was 13, and he was told over and over again that the only way for him to see her again was for him to stay in "The Truth", and that she would be resurrected one day. As he was a child, this was instilled deeply in him, and it took well into his adulthood to realize this was pure craziness. He was eventually disfellowshipped, now his father and two sisters will not speak to him or acknowledge his existence. They have quite literally walked by him on the street without making eye contact. I don't know how someone could do that to family.
I was never baptized, so my parents still talk to me and we have an ok relationship. But that rift is always there, and I know my mom's greatest wish is that someday I'll see the light.
--- --- Notes
Author Qball92
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:07:51 UTC 2020
Score 19 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:49 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 4
Body link
It's from 12,000 people from each of the 12 tribes of Israel. Not a JW/exJW, just a little bit of a religious scholar.
--- --- Notes
Author theknyte
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:16:07 UTC 2020
Score 37 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:50 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
I know the general world just laughs at Jehovah Witnesses as those "Nutty religious people who knock on the door."
This is all they want the general world to think of them.
THEY ARE A CULT.
They use classic indoctrination and brainwashing tricks that are only employed by cults. They use families against each other with their "Disfellowshipping" belief. Which is: If you don't follow the church's rule 100% to their liking, they will disfellowship you. You are cut off. From everything. Your friends and even your own family is told not to talk to, meet, or contact in any way shape or form, until they come crawling back to the church, begging to be let back in.
Parents willingly kick their own children out of their homes, if the Elders (Leaders of the church, ie Pastors, Priests, etc.) demand it.
They are not to associate with "Worldly Influences". Which means, no friends who are outside the church. No dating outside the church. No watching or reading ANY media not approved by the church. (Information Control and Suppression, another classic cult tactic.)
They do not want authorities to ever be involved with their religion. So any abuse, physical, sexual, mental etc. that is reported to the church, is "dealt with" in house, and even if serious crimes have been committed, they will not report them, for fear of bad publicity.
This is not a harmless religion with "Silly beliefs" such as simply not celebrating or recognizing any holiday including Birthdays. This is a cult, that has been manipulating and controlling their members for over 100 years now.
SOURCE: Was raised in JW org, and left as soon as I was old enough to.
--- --- Notes
Author throw_away_abc123efg
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:31:56 UTC 2020
Score 74 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:51 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link
They probably witnessed it, I mean, they are called Jehovah’s Witnesses.
--- --- Notes
Author ZoraksGirlfriend
Posted On Fri Nov 13 23:38:42 UTC 2020
Score 16 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:51 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 0
Body link
There was one woman who died after refusing a transfusion. For some reason, it made the news and her family was talking about beingJWs. One of them said something like “in this day and age, you’d think doctors be able to prevent her death.”
I can’t remember if I literally face palmed, but I know I yelled at the tv.
--- --- Notes
Author Blathersisacoward
Posted On Fri Nov 13 20:14:37 UTC 2020
Score 64 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:52 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
Growing up in a JW household this doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.
--- --- Notes
Author Vorian23
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:06:48 UTC 2020
Score 72 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:53 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
They actually celebrate it when children “remain faithful to Jehovah and are willing to give their lives to uphold his laws”. This article is from their magazine the awake and it spotlights kids who died. https://wol.`jw.org`/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/101994363 It’s a horrible cult. I wish more people knew about their harmful practices
--- --- Notes
Author San_Ajo
Posted On Fri Nov 13 21:56:56 UTC 2020
Score 20 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:54 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 3
Body link
My grandmother was a JW and wanted to let my mother, who needed a transfusion after birth, die. (Austria, 1976)
--- --- Notes
Author Mina111406
Posted On Fri Nov 13 22:11:36 UTC 2020
Score 271 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:54 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 64
Body link
If they say it's for religious purposes, there isn't much that can be done. Was working with a patient that died after a car accident because she refused a transfusion because she was JW. She looked terrified saying it, but her husband was there exclaiming the sin of receiving a transfusion. She would have been fine, even though she was seriously injured, but she just lost too much blood. She had a toddler and a baby and died because of her religious belief. Seems extremely selfish to me, but thats my opinion.
There are artificial blood products now specifically for this reason. Because it's fake, they can take the transfusion. But only if a hospital has it available. It's not super common and hard to get in a timely fashion.
Source: am lab tech that does blood bank and work in a very small hospital that also gives me a lot of ER patient interaction.
--- --- Notes
Author DickJagamo
Posted On Sat Nov 14 00:13:11 UTC 2020
Score 7 as of Sun Nov 15 18:00:55 UTC 2020
Conversation Size 2
Body link
The Jehovah's Witnesses are a cult. Not quite as bad as Scientology, but still pretty bad.
submitted by jw_mentions to jw_mentions [link] [comments]


2020.11.10 16:58 themadkingnqueen The picture that said a thousand words (but only one denial)

In the Scam Home Warranty business, the people are represented by two separate but equally lazy groups: The Authorization agents, who deny claims and smoke like chimneys, and the technicians who lie through their teeth to snag a few extra bucks. These are their stories CLICK CLICK
Once it became apparent that we would demand pictures on almost ever air conditioner claim, things changed.
Some techs stopped working with us, some 'conveniently' had technical difficulties that prevented them from sending in pictures (those were fun calls since we'd kill the claim unless the customer provided pictures which they almost never did) but then some techs got....smart.
There were certain calls where the tech would send in the picture and be extremely aggressive in an odd way.
"I don't see a fleck of rust on that coil there son."
"That coil is as clean as the day she was put in there."
"No way that coil could be leaking, just look at it."
"Go right ahead and circle where you see any rust or corrosion on the coil, I'll send that picture over to the office manager and we'll stick around at the customer's house until we get this sorted out."
Not all techs got like this but some of them were so consistent with this activity that we notated the account.
As luck, divine providence or human stupidity would have it, one of the techs who had had a string of perfectly clean coils made a mistake and that was the end of him.
Here's how it went.
Call comes in from Arizona, I recognize the number and sigh audibly before hitting the button to bring the tech in my ear.
But before I could give my intro, I overheard something.
Tech: "...I already sent in the picture they're gonna cover this one or I'll refund yo-" [abrupt silence] "Hello?"
Me: "SHW, themadkingnqueen here, got a claim for me today?"
Tech: "Yes it's #"
Me: "Are you at the house right now?"
Tech: "Yes, I already sent the picture in let me give you the model and serial (all 14 questions we ask on an AC claim) while I'm waiting on it coming over."
I put in the information into the diagnosis box like normal and I keep my eye on the google phone waiting for any new pictures.
The tech sent in the picture. It just wasn't the one he meant to.
Somehow, someway he screwed it up. Normally I wouldn't even notice the difference but that chuck of the conversation I heard let me know something was up with this claim.
The picture was of an evaporator coil that was absolutely filthy. The caption wasn't the claim number like normal however....
"They're gonna deny the claim lack of maintenance if I send them this picture, coil clean is gonna cost you $250 but it will get the claim covered"
What followed was a new picture of entirely different coils that looked very nice and clean with the claim number attached like normal.
Tech: "Hey I think I might have sent over the wrong picture, go ahead and delete the one without the claim number that's another customer for American Home Shield..."
Me: "Ok"
I let the silence hang in the air while I typed furiously and of course used the snipping tool to capture both pictures into a separate file that I attached to the claim and flagged with my boss, the head of vendor relations and my bosses boss.
Tech: "So I'm gonna need 3 pounds of R22 and a capacitor and I think we'll be good for the day."
Me: "Not a problem, but looks like we're going to be reaching out to the customer on this one. Go ahead and grab your service call fee now as it might take a while and I don't want to waste your or their time."
click - from the tech not me
Epilogue: tech was not removed from the system but we did do something with his billing and took away his preferred vendor status. If you're curious about what was going on, he was double dipping by charging the customers for a coil clean and then submitting the clean picture to SHW for some freon and a capacitor. He was smart enough to only do it with Realty policies since we weren't allowed to demand a leak search on a realty policy and company policy demanded we cover 3lbs anyway (even though the EPA would flip out if they knew that was thing we did all the time without leak searches). That was a dirty tech taking advantage of the system. We would never think to demand a picture of the nameplate on top of the coils, we were lucky to get a good picture in the first place. I have no idea how many claim he ripped us off on but that picture with that caption was the straw that broke the camel's back
submitted by themadkingnqueen to ScamHomeWarranty [link] [comments]


2020.11.08 16:48 Aleie Thoughts on Genshin Impact and what to anticipate for and to expect in the future

Preamble

I'm going to talk about some of the community's sentiment towards Genshin Impact and what to anticipate for and to expect in the future from miHoYo and future games they release.
If you think this post is too long, at least skip to sections you might be interested in. Or to the last section and things that interest you in that section (11. My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect) I've removed a lot of hyperlinks to save on characters.
Very little people know about miHoYo's upcoming game, Project X:
Project X: Project X is a new ray-traced action shooter from popular anime game developer Mihoyo, coming in mid-2021. The game features next-gen anime-style rendering and advanced interactive physics on a spherical open-world planet.
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/gtc-china-2019-ray-tracing-games/
Relevant game experience

Preface

I'll be mainly drawing comparisons between GI and HI3 in the "My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect" section. As of writing this, GI is essentially how HI3 is in terms of the systems in place (and YouTube and social media). I'll also be basing what I anticipate for and expect of the game with what I've experienced in HI3.
I went into this game blind. I never played the Closed Beta Test (CBT), watched any gameplay of the CBT or read anything about the game besides what was on the official website.
Reminders
I'd like to remind everyone that a subreddit is only a very small minority of the actual population of the user base a subreddit is about. Subreddits are almost always echo chambers for topics and tend to silence opposing opinions.
Companies are for profit. miHoYo is no exception. They know what they're doing to maximize profits. They had/have such a successful game with HI3 to convince investors to invest in the development of game. If you want things to change, you vote with your wallet.

Table of Contents

  1. Should I keep playing? (16 sec)
  2. Game release expectations (59 sec)
  3. What is Genshin Impact? (48 sec)
  4. "End game" (16 sec)
  5. Spiral Abyss & the "meta" (1 min 10 sec)
  6. Power creep (23 sec)
  7. Primo Gems, Gacha and Resin (2 mins 16 sec)
  8. Addressing community statements (4 mins 50 sec)
  9. Notoriety of miHoYo (26 sec)
  10. The future of Genshin Impact (35 sec)
  11. My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect (13 mins 42 sec, every unbolded point below totalled)
  12. Successful release (1 min 5 sec)
  13. System, QOL and in-game content changes and updates to anticipate for and expect (1 min 17 sec)
  14. Power creep (23 sec)
  15. Animations, music and story to anticipate for and expect (2 mins 3 sec)
  16. Nitpicks (38 sec)
  17. Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games (4 mins 34 sec)
  18. Addressing the player base that mainly play PC games/MMOs (1 min 22 sec)
  19. Project X (16 sec)
  20. Final Thoughts (44 sec)
  21. Bias (19 sec)
  22. TL;DR (15 sec)
Approximate reading time of ~26 mins at 225wpm.
With all that out of the way, lets get started.

Should I keep playing?

Do you still enjoy playing the game? If so, go ahead and continue to enjoy playing the game. If not, you might want to consider taking a break until new content comes out, or if there is a significant systematic change to the game.
There's nothing keeping you from not playing the game, you can always quit.

Game release expectations

From the general sentiment of Reddit and the first auto suggested result from Google, people expected GI to be an MMORPG-like game where you can play with your friends (like a typical MMORPG) but were confused about what Genshin Impact was/is once they started playing (specifically when they reached Adventure Rank (AR) 7).
If you're a person that falls into what I said above, you won't like hearing the following.
It's not miHoYo's fault, it's yours.
You were misled by the game's marketing when you could have done due diligence and researched details about the game beforehand (e.g by going on YouTube and finding out details about the game from their 3 closed betas).
An analogy to this is AMD vs Intel & AMD vs NVIDIA, where the three companies try to sell you their products with cherry picked performance numbers. The community always echos to "wait for the product to be released instead of pre-ordering" and "wait for 3rd party reviews".
When people have expectations and those expectations are broken, most of the time depending on context, all they're left with are negative feelings (e.g. disappointment) whether or not it's warranted.
But even though it's not miHoYo's fault, it's the company's job to keep their player base invested in their game, and by extension their company.

What is Genshin Impact?

Genshin Impact is a mostly single player RPG with co-op elements. The game implements the gacha mechanic to get characters and weapons exclusive to gacha. The game also implements the typical stamina/energy mechanic in gacha games in the form of resin.
This is where a disconnect comes from. Typical PC gamers aren't able to endlessly grind the game to progress (I've played Black Desert Online starting in beta, I understand grinding; grinding for hours in the same location for a couple thousandths of a percentage of character experience points per mob kill) while gacha gamers don't like the gacha system in place due the system being worse than other gacha games in terms of the resin recharge rate and gacha rates.
But people still play GI as there are various reasons why people like playing this game e.g.:
But the thing I want to stress is the main point of this game is the story. Everything else is secondary/complimentary to the story. Everything revolves around the story.

"End game"

A lot of people on this subreddit are probably at the point in the game where there's no more story content to do, and all they're doing are:

Spiral Abyss & the "meta"

Spiral Abyss is currently the end game of GI due to its difficulty and rewards. Once you're able to fully clear the Spiral Abyss, you're free to do whatever you want in the game (though you've always been free to do whatever you want) for now (until they release something else that replaces Spiral Abyss as the end game).
This brings me to the "meta" and tier lists. You can have a tier list with ratings for multiple categories (e.g. exploration, aesthetics, etc.). But generally when you see a tier list for GI, it's going to be about how strong characters are in combat, and specifically the Spiral Abyss. There are world bosses too, but they currently seem to scale off of AR and what the game thinks how strong your characters should be at that AR. Comparing this to the Spiral Abyss where it requires you to max out your characters, weapons and artifacts. All this results in the "meta", which is what characters are optimal in clearing the Spiral Abyss.
But the game as it is right now has nothing that pits players against each other (typically in the form of a leader board), so the "meta" doesn't matter.
The Spiral Abyss as we know of now will have their mobs change over time. This will require you at a base level to have one main damage character of each element maxed out.
Note the existence of a timer in Spiral Abyss. You need to be able to do enough damage within the time constraints to clear floors. Doing damage sells.

Power creep

As the story progresses, characters developt and characters are bound to get stronger. The characters available now are inevitably going to be power crept by newer (and existing) characters.
If there is (or isn't) a mechanic in the game (e.g. shields, attack speed, etc.), miHoYo will make characters, weapons, artifacts and mobs that revolve around that mechanic.
Yu-Gi-Oh! is the go to example of power creep for every game.
The more text and conditions there are in a description, the more power crept the thing is

Primo Gems, Gacha and Resin

Here's every post I read about the topic, and a couple comment threads in each (sorted by upvotes):
It's interesting how low the gacha rate of this game is compared to most other gacha games (Exos Heroes with the 0.5% though). But you have to remember that there's a pity system in place of 90, with 75 being a soft pity:
https://www.reddit.com/Genshin\_Impact/comments/jo9d9d/the\_5\_rate\_is\_not\_uniform\_06\_there\_is\_a\_soft\_pity/
You have gacha games where there's a higher gacha rate, but then you see/know of people that have spent multiple times the expected pull rate currency amount without getting what they wanted.
You also have to take into account what you're getting out of a character in GI (explained later on in Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games).
The stamina mechanic in GI is in the form of the resin system. Resin is the cost for a lot of in-game content that rewards progression mats (e.g. talent books, mora, etc.). The cost of a resin refill increases over time, futher discouraging players from progressing faster than at the rate miHoYo set the recharge rate to.
This is really interesting because in combination with the relative low gacha rates of 0.5% for a 5⭐ and 5.1% for a 4⭐ with characteweapon progression being stunted by resin, it discourages a vast majority of the player base to spend money and wish because they wouldn't even be able to use their newly wished character unless they already had the mats.
This is what the system in place is trying to do. It's getting players to play the game once or twice a day, for 20-30 minutes for daily commissions and using resin.
This is what you see for the stamina mechanic typically implemented in gacha games, but to the extreme to discouraging players from playing more and progressing more than the amount the system intends.
How you enjoy the game is your preference and might not be the same for others, whether you enjoy grinding for hours and hours, or enjoy playing for a couple minutes to a couple hours every day. This typically correlates to the amount of time a person can allocate throughout a day.
One thing I'd like to point out are people saying that there's nothing to do outside of resin. What they typically mean is that there's no activity that "directly contributes to instantly progress my characters/weapons/artifacts". You can spend hours and hours traversing the world, fighting mobs and collecting mats from them, collecting mats in the world, challenging the Spiral Abyss, etc.. Look at Enviosity on Twitch for example (nice fire tornado).
Having options is nice.
Which brings me to...

Addressing community statements

I'll reiterate that I thoroughly read every post and a couple of the top comment threads of each post. There are a lot of valid complaints about the game and great suggestions for the game.
The three things that ticked me off the most are the statements/imperatives that:
  1. Because miHoYo targeted/appealed GI to the global main stream audience on Android and iOS, alongside releases on PC and PS4 (and eventually the Nintendo Switch), it puts GI in some upper echelon AAA tier, so the gacha mechanic causes the game to have an identity crisis
  2. Tell other people "how to play the game" on the basis of their own preferences, leading to obvious hypocrisy
  3. Generalistic statements about different subsets of the player base with no explanation and making sweeping assumptions based on statements
1.
First things first is that a lot of these statements are black-and-white, but the topic they're making these statements about aren't. This means these statements are wrong and misleading. These statements typically have the person:
Wikipedia says an "AAA (pronounced and sometimes written Triple-A) is an informal classification used for video games produced and distributed by a mid-sized or major publisher, typically having higher development and marketing budgets."
I assume what people typically think when they think of an AAA game is a game that takes the limits of what computer hardware at the time can provide (depending on platform) and implements that in the game. They can do so because there's money to do so. This can also correlate to the amount of money used in marketing or the existing franchise itself (if a franchise is popular, it has innate marketing in it's fan base).
From what I've stated above, do I consider GI an AAA game for the global main stream audience? Yes.
So assuming GI is an AAA game for the main stream audience, then comes the statement/sentiment that because it implements the gacha mechanic, the game has an identity crisis.
Being an AAA game and having the gacha mechanic aren't mutually exclusive. I've already proven it above by stating GI is an AAA game from the definition provided.
The gacha mechanic is specifically about spending a currency to randomly receive an object (capsule-toy vending machine). The gacha mechanic is essentially the loot box mechanic found in many AAA western games.
The resin system GI has in place is not the gacha mechanic. It's the stamina/energy mechanic you typically see in mobile gacha games to stunt progression until it regenerates over time, typically allowing players to pay a currency to recharge/refresh stamina/energy.
And the same as before, being an AAA game and having a stamina mechanic aren't mutually exclusive.
It's an AAA game with the gacha mechanic and stamina mechanic, there's no identity crisis. miHoYo knows what they're doing.
Does the stamina mechanic detract from the game? You have a subset of the players that typically have played games that can be played for hours and hours upon end that don't like this system because they can't progress at the rate they want. You have a subset of the players that typically play gacha games that don't like how slow the resin recharge rate and high resin recharge is, relative to what they've experienced.
Does the gacha mechanic detract from the game? You have a subset of the players that typically have played games that can be played for hours and hours upon end to get things they want. You have a subset of the players that typically play gacha games that don't like how the gacha mechanic is implemented, typically complaining about the gacha rates.
The answers to the two questions above are completely subjective (the person's preferences), and you'll see that a subset of the extremes for the two types of players I mentioned (the "far PC gamer" and the "far gacha gamer") are the ones that express the most issue with the game, and in the form of black-and-white statements.
Which all comes back to "the main stream audience", "casual audience", whatever term you want to use. I mentioned before "that a subreddit is only a very small minority of the actual population of the user base a subreddit is about. Subreddits are almost always echo chambers for topics and tend to silence opposing opinions."
When you take a look at who's writing these posts/threads/articles/etc., they aren't a part of the "main stream audience". They might think they are, but they're assuming the main stream audience has the same gaming tendencies they do.
But then here comes the grey. You have players that are okay with the system in place, which I'll address in point 3.
2.
The far ends of the player base have specific preferences on how they want the game to work. A subset of them don't like this, so they express so. But in a lot of instances, they think/make negative comments on the people that have opposing preferences (or don't mind the system in place).
A subset of the far ends put down how these players enjoy the game, and at the same time are defensive at how they typically enjoy games and simultaneously push their preferences/views on other people.
This is hypocrisy.
3.
Finally, for some of the people that make these statements on social media or to people that think this way.
Do they actually read what the people that oppose their thoughts and opinions say or do they see a post on Reddit/a headline somewhere, glance at the title, notice it's not attacking the system, and not read the post at all or to try and understand where the opposing side is coming from?
A person making a factual statement (or a subjective statement) does not mean they are defending or attacking the statement's various opinions around the statement's topic.
For example, I could say that "I like X bubble tea made by Y store". The statement does not:
See where I'm going with this?

Notoriety of miHoYo

From what the Chinese community have said about miHoYo, the gist is that miHoYo has a monopoly on high quality gacha games. HI3 was released in 2016 in China, and the only game that matches or beats its quality today is GI, Punishing: Gray Raven (released December 2019; in essence HI3 with Nier aesthetics) and X2: Eclipse (currently in CBT). As such, miHoYo sets up a system to really encourage (using predatory tactics to entice) users to spend money to progress (e.g. progression of collecting characters, maxing out characters, etc.) in anything but the story.

The future of Genshin Impact

I see GI, and by this extension this subreddit, like Fire Emblem Heroes. Initially the community was full of life e.g. strategy guides, fan art, cosplay, etc.. But due to decisions to maximize profit, the game died off and only a smaller dedicated fan base is left.
GI was released during a pretty optimal time. Other major games weren't releasing or were delayed when GI was released (Cyberpunk 2077 being released in 2077?), so the game's still on the top of everyone's attention. Once other games of the same or higher quality come out (mainly Blue Protocol, but unknow global release date, and isn't the same genre of game as GI), the player base of Genshin Impact might lower or won't spend as much money, forcing miHoYo to take action.

My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect

If you reached this part (or skipped to this part), it probably means you're going to continue playing GI for now and want to know what to anticipate for and to expect.
But first, I don't think the points I mentioned in The future of Genchin Impact will happen to GI due to its high quality.
Successful release
The release of GI was great (US$245 million in the first month, sure if it takes into account every platform), but I personally expected more in terms of quality of the game and content since HI3 was already the highest quality gacha game until now (my criteria under Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games). Though they're killing it in the music department.
You have to realize how successful the release of this actually game was, and by extension HI3.
This game has no previous franchise that automatically gives it a huge dedicated fan base. When I say huge, I am talking about the likes of, Fate/Grand Order (F/GO) with the Fate franchise, any mobile game based off a huge/popular anime/manga franchise, any typical PC/console game that's based off a huge/popular franchise, etc..
For how high quality the game is, HI3 must have done pretty good to convince investors to invest in GI with GI's US$100 million development cost.
Note that GI is aimed towards the main stream audience (your typical PC gamer and mobile gamer). HI3 specifically to mobile gamers (until they added a PC port). Also, the genre is a huge part in the popularity of HI3. Fantasy is more popular than sci-fi.
It's up to miHoYo to retain their player base for GI and for their future products.
System, QOL and in-game content changes and updates to anticipate for and expect
Almost all the quality of life changes that're applicable to GI and HI3 are already in HI3 e.g.:
Expect to see the following added to GI that already exist in HI3 (though I'm probably forgetting things):
Also the nice attention to small details e.g.:
Everything you see for GI in terms of YouTube and social media content have been the same and/or higher quality as HI3 e.g.:
So...
Expect to see the things that GI hasn't done yet but have done for HI3 (not in any specific order):
I expect them to implement more MMO aspects e.g.:
Power creep
I touched on this before. In HI3, miHoYo started releasing character specific weapons and artifacts. Because of this, it stripped out any real strategy out of weapons and artifacts. Genshin Impact seems to be different since there're no artifacts locked behind gacha. All the unique strengths of characters are dumped into their constellations.
If characters are power crept, expect miHoYo to do something to make the characters that were power crept more relevant, typically correlating the the progression of the story and its characters.
Animations, music and story to anticipate for and expect
It's the resounding sentiment of the HI3 fan base of "when is an anime for HI3 coming out?". The story of HI3 started in 2016 and is said to progress for 3 more years until a new arc/story takes place. There is so much content in the main story and side storys that can span multiple seasons for an anime.
I'm reiterating that the story of GI is the main point of the game. I'm worried they won't do anything unique or special (unlike HI3) outside of your typical fantasy/RPG story plot lines since this game is aimed towards the main stream audience.
miHoYo has their own music label HOYO-MiX. and their own animation studio miHoYoAnime (they've previously outsourced help). They've produced/are producing banger OSTs and animations. In HI3, when there's a major character development arc, they come out with a banger animated short with a banger song (with lyrics) for that animated short for that character. They sometimes do this for events e.g. (spoiler alert for everything except the last video):
I'm waiting for the same in GI.
The difference in GI and HI3 is that HI3's main story isn't canon with the existence of the player (captain). It's like a story book. The manga (and short visual novels) are the same. HI3 has an alternative universe that involves the player that comes in the form of in game event stories (with all the event stories following the same story). GI seems to be reversed. We're playing GI with the player (traveler) that's canon to the main story of GI. The manga is not canon with the traveler. You'll need to read the manga if you want to know everything about the GI world.
The problem is that I don't know how there's going to be an epic anime-style animation/song for now since the story revolves around the player travelling to different regions. We don't have enough story and character development with the different characters in the game, so there won't be any animation/song that can evoke any strong emotions.
There're songs/OSTs in HI3 that are sorely missing on their official YouTube and/or Spotify/Apple Music:
Guns GirlZ has some great songs:
You'd have to dig for them on YouTube (pretty easy on YouTube) or Google, because of the disparity between the Chinese community and the global community.
You can find GI's songs/OSTs here:
Common links:
Nitpicks
I'm disappointed with is the level of "coolness" of the characters' talents (subjective). HI3's characters have super cool character abilities and ability combos. I'm still waiting for the same in Genshin Impact (probably after characters are power crept).
Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games
The gacha rates for 5⭐ and 4⭐ characters and weapons are low compared to other gacha games.
Now actually consider what you get from the characters (weapons give you higher stats):
Compare this to almost every other gacha game, where you either get static/animated 2D art or low quality 3D models, maybe with multiple voice languages. Quality being completely dependent on the character's rarity.
GI on the other hand beats every other gacha game out of the water, with in my opinion the 4⭐ characters being the actual stars of the show (but not Bennett, sorry Bennett).
miHoYo invests in their characters that make you like them.
There are other reasons to play a game as I stated previously besides what you typically do for gacha games (e.g. collecting characters/weapons, auto-battling etc.).
There are a lot of gacha games out there in a saturated market and the vast majority of them all follow the same gacha system. It might be a good idea to think about the game you're going to download and play because of the game publisher's marketing, and whether to invest time and resources into it because they're so many other games in the same genre.
To do so, you have to think about a game in a more critical manner outside of the content of the game.
Of course, if a game as a monopoly of the genre (GI being the only open world gacha game), there's no other choice.
What I look for in a gacha game before even trying to play it is:
Game optimization
If I a game runs poorly and is unoptimized even though other more demanding games run better, I have no reason to invest in the game.
One example that falls into this category is the gacha game that's been recently released called Illusion Connect. The game doesn't run on Android 11 at the time of writing is, with their support saying it's because Android 11 is too new:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.superprism.illusion&hl=en\_CA&gl=US&reviewId=gp%3AAOqpTOFC-IBCuWinIURXdr3ZpChpbtlWdmQuM9kseAkpR0\_1LHfpyOZN3qb\_edaM76jOQqVcV2cOgdea5LL70Q
Look at every other game that runs on Android 11. Look at GI that runs great on mobile.
Game UI/design
If the game UI/design is bad, I don't invest in the game. You can search online on what makes good game design/UI, but a couple points for me are:
Style is subjective, but inconsistent style/design in UI isn't.
In terms of gacha games, you'll typically have characters that are drawn by different artists, causing a discrepancy in what you consider a character's art to be in terms of quality. This can be jarring for players.
For example, F/GO has bad UI:
A good example of UI/design is Apple. All their products follow a consistent style (hardware and software), and they pay close attention to the small details in their operating systems, apps, etc., specifically transition animations.
Audio quality
I'm specifically talking about the quality of audio:
The worst offenders are gacha games that have audio that sounds like they're 16kbps.
You then have extras like songs and original sound tracks (OSTs).
Gameplay/gameplay quality
The vast majority of gacha games follow the same setup:
  1. Advertise the game primarily with art/animation, and not the actual game/gameplay, which means they're clearly enticing players to play their game to collecting characters -> gacha
  2. Turn-based strategy in the form of two teams of characters fighting, having auto-battle as an option
  3. Use of low quality 2D sprites/3D models
If you enjoy the gameplay, go ahead and enjoy the gameplay.
The game producer's past history and tendencies
If a game passes every previous check, then I'll look at the game producer's past history and tendencies to assume what to expect of the game.
I'm looking at F/GO once again. The game's the top grossing gacha game in the world, yet the game producer doesn't update the game and it's UI to be better or higher quality.
Conclusion
I put gacha games on par with high profile PC games. I'm not going to be wasting time and resources on a low quality game that I'm looking to invest in for an extended period of time.
The following, most notable gacha games to me that fit the criteria above are:
Epic Seven [Smilegate Megaport] almost gets a pass.
Addressing the player base that mainly play PC games/MMOs
I suggest reading the section above.
Welcome to the gacha mechanic and stamina mechanic.
As long as miHoYo generates their intended profit, you'll be stuck with these two mechanics in their current state if you continue playing.
I suspect they're so restrictive on resin so the player doesn't get bored with the game (less time played = less bored of seeing/doing the same things) since there is a lack of end game content that will hopefully get resolved in the future as they add more to the game.
Feel free to disagree with me.
There are other aspects of the game to enjoy.
The gacha mechanic isn't a bad model for a game depending on how it's set up, and whether you're talking about the perspective of the player or game producer. In terms of the game producer, the gacha mechanic is great for profit.
This is probably your first time playing a gacha game and knowing about the company miHoYo. Companies don't owe you anything, and you're not a long time fan of miHoYo to warrant being owed to.
This isn't like living in a country where if you don't like something about the country, (most of the time) you are stuck in the country. It's a game and you're welcome to not play it.
This is the only time I mention in post that this AAA level game is free to play.
Everything I've stated previously says that GI discourages you from wishing and spending primo gems on resin refreshes. It makes people that really want a charactecharacters and/or really want to progress in the game spend money, so it's even more on them if they do spend money.
This game will last a while, and there is a lot of content coming up.
Project X
I'm leaning towards the game being a story based game with the gacha mechanic for characters and weapons. I learn towards this because of the proven successful game model miHoYo's used. On the other hand it could be a PvP shooter with a cosmetics shop. It's really up in the air for me until we get more news.
Final Thoughts
miHoYo is one of my favourite game companies to date from the experience I had with HI3 and now GI. miHoYo has done what I've always wanted in a game (until Matrix levels of technology come out), which is a high quality 3D anime-style open world story-driven RPG with tons of great out-of-game content. For me, the story & character development takes priority over to everything else (then the music and animations).
One of the big things miHoYo did that propelled my opinion of them is their creating of a PC port of HI3 with higher quality graphics settings. They didn't need to, but they did because they could and a subset of the player base wanted it.
You can read a brief history of miHoYo, their CEO, and their games from:
People loved something, were inspired by it and set out to create and spread what they loved to the world.
Bias
You might think that because I like miHoYo, that I'm bias towards them, that everything/a lot of things I've said is invalidated. That's where you're wrong kiddo. Just because I'm bias towards miHoYo doesn't mean everything/a lot of things I've said is invalidated (liking the games miHoYo have produced and the things they've done in the games and out of the games). They aren't mutually exclusive.
TL;DR
submitted by Aleie to Genshin_Impact [link] [comments]


2020.11.06 21:46 ar_david_hh Nov/6/2020 wrap-up: \\ War in Artsakh (Karabakh) \\ battle of Shushi \\ Gyorbagyor-2020 \\ Azerbaijan targets school, historical site, civilians \\ jihadists' families write letter to Erdogan; sons missing in Azerb. \\ battlefield & analysis \\ Artsakh's international recognition \\ SOAD returns

Your Friday report contains 4145 words. 16-minute read.
 
They Protect the Land: https://youtu.be/XqmknZNg1yw

jihadists from the Caucasus

Syrian outlet Alyuam writes about the presence of 2,000 militants in Azerbaijan transported from northern Syria. 150 of them, however, are radical militants originally from the Caucasus region who had earlier traveled to Syria for money. They were recruited from the Syrian cities of Afrin and Bab.
Video in Arabic: https://t.me/infoteka24/10936

more jihadist bodies arrive in Syria

Syrian SOHR activists have learned about the transfer of 12 more militant bodies from Azerbaijan to Syria. Additionally, 10 more deaths were confirmed in the past few hours. SOHR alone has identified 250 deaths.
Turkey sent 2,580 militants, from whom 342 have already returned. "It is also worth noting that some of the fighters sent to Azerbaijan were not even aware that the Azerbaijani forces belong to the Shiite community, and discovering this fact prompted many fighters to return to Syria just after they had known," says SOHR.
https://factor.am/306161.html , https://www.syriahr.com/en/191389/

jihadists' family members want their relatives back / letter to Erdogan

VVoenkor reporter citing Syrian STEP NEWS: family members of missing militants from Amashat and Suleiman Shah groups have asked Erdogan to find and return their relatives. They want commander Abu Amasha to be transparent about the whereabouts of relatives in Karabakh.
"We are a group of refugee families coming from all regions of Syria who live in poverty in the north. We fled our homes due to brutality. Abu Amasha took advantage of our poverty to recruit our sons and send them to Karabakh's harsh conditions without proper military training.
There is no connection with them while Abu Amasha refuses to provide details about their condition for over a month now. We hope our plea will reach Mr. Erdogan and every Turkish official and they'll apply pressure on Abu Amasha."
https://t.me/RVvoenko393 , https://factor.am/305820.html , https://t.me/anna_news/9407

Russian police neutralize terror cells

Russian authorities busted a Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami terrorist cell in Kazan that was trying to establish a "global caliphate". Five arrested for spreading extremist materials among the Muslim population of the Tatarstan region.
They busted another suspected terrorist from Katiba Tawheed wal-Jihad cell in Adegia region. He was trying to organize a terror attack in the city Volgograd (Stalingrad) to blow up the Motherland statue. Cops believe it was coordinated from Syria.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034132.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034154.html

few more things from earlier

Combat footage showing Armenian soldiers suppressing Azeri fire while a team goes to evacuate a wounded soldier:
https://youtu.be/9MgJImKae2w?t=60
Yesterday, Iran moved more military equipment towards its northern borders with Artsakh. Among them is a vehicle that can create a temporary bridge over a river. The river Araks divides Iran from the area of Artsakh currently invaded by Syrian jihadists and Azeri troops.
https://t.me/infoteka24/10928
Yesterday the army said they shot Azeri armored vehicles and a truck carrying troops. The photos were published:
https://t.me/infoteka24/10957
Japanese pianist Chicaco Kajima performed Arno Babajanyan's "Anurjner" (Nocturne) and dedicated it to Armenia, wishing for peace.
https://youtu.be/JzVvnkQtlq4?t=1
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=3443631462370860&id=759921597408540

military aid to Azerbaijan & Joe Biden

National Interest article by Michael Rubin: President Biden Must Shut Down Azerbaijan’s Sanctions Waiver on Day One
"The current Azerbaijani offensive [against Karabakh], however, violates each condition of the Section 907 waiver […]. Whereas first Heydar and then Ilham Aliyev once stood against Al Qaeda, Azerbaijan now works in conjunction with Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries, many of whom previously served Al Qaeda-linked groups or the Islamic State."
Full: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/president-biden-must-shut-down-azerbaijan%E2%80%99s-sanctions-waiver-day-one-171872

the debate over Armenia's armament between 2012-2020

There were questions about Armenia's weapons arsenal. Some circles said it would be better to purchase more TOR instead of OSA air defense. During a TV interview, army spokesman Artsrun said OSA is what Armenia's budget allows. $5,000 OSA missile vs $400,000 for TOR.
"For the price of one TOR unit, we purchased dozens of OSA. These units successfully destroyed [Israeli-made] Azeri drones during the July clashes so Azerbaijan had to invite Turkish F-16 and drones. One of our OSAs destroyed an [Israeli-made] Azeri Hermes drone [worth ~$100m, correction $30m] which costs more than what we spent on our entire OSA contract."
Army spokesman Artsrun said Armenia has purchased more modern high-tech weapons between 2018-2020 than in the past combined. Ex-president Serj Sargsyan viewed that as a challenge against his legacy [he was ousted in 2018] and publicly rebuked Artsrun. "Artsrun either doesn't know all the numbers or he's intentionally distorting the reality."
Army spokesman Artsrun responded: as I've said during the interview, we've always tried to buy whatever the budget allowed. We tried purchasing modern weapons between 2012-2018. The volumes increased between 2016-2018 (after April battles), but between 2018-2020 we purchased more modern weapons than ever before.
In 2012-2018 we purchased a few hundred modern vehicles. In 2018-2020 we purchased twice as many.
2012-18 we got modern communication devices. 2018-20 we got 3x as many.
2012-18 we got limited quantities of modern anti-tank weapons, like Kornet. 2018-20 we got 3x as many.
2012-18 we got Smerch missiles. 2018-20 we got more, and multiplied the ammunition storage.
2012-18 we got a modern ballistic missile. 2018-20 we got modern destroyer jets.
2012-18 we got small quantities of modern short-range air defenses. 2018-20 we tripled that count, added some older generation models, and bought the latest generation TOR-M which is the best in the world.
2012-18 we got radio communication devices that ended up being faulty and never worked. Only in 2020, we were able to fix them in addition to purchasing much better ones, by multiplying the quantity.
2012-18 we imported and produced limited quantities of drones. In 2018-20 we increased the quantities five-fold.
2018-2020 we signed a large contract to re-equip the air force. The details are secret. TOS was purchased, and so on. And that is not all.
https://news.am/arm/news/611756.html , https://news.am/arm/news/611756.html , https://news.am/arm/news/611761.html

November 6 events / battlefield / diplomacy / humanitarian aid

00:51: Yesterday the Russian MFA criticized the presence of 2,000 jihadists in Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev responded by accusing Russia of being biased.
An official from Russian MFA responded to Aliyev's accusations, saying "To be honest, we don't understand President Aliyev's emotional response to Russian MFA's remarks on foreign mercenaries in Karabakh. Maybe President Aliyev's aides showed him other people's materials or [mislead him what Lavrov had said]. We continue to believe that the introduction of armed militants in South Caucasus is a threat to the stability of every country in the region."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034079.html
2:08 ANNA: capital Stepanakert is being bombed.
5:37 WarGonzo: the indiscriminate bombing of Stepanakert has been going on for two hours. Armenian artillery is working to silence the Azeri firing points.
9:15: video showing the aftermath of Azerbaijan targeting a school in Stepanakert.
https://t.me/infoteka24/10987
https://t.me/wargonzo/3962 , https://t.me/anna_news/9402
5:22: the leaders of Canada and France discussed the Artsakh conflict and the terror situation in Europe. They agreed to continue to defend human rights and fight extremism.
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9927497 , www.1lurer.am/hy/2020/11/06/Մակրոնն-ու-Թրյուդոն-քննարկել-են-Լեռնային-Ղարաբաղում-ստեղծված-իրավիճակը/353702
6:42: Spanish-Catalonian city of Berga has officially recognized Artsakh's independence and condemned the Azeri aggression. "L’Ajuntament de Berga condemna l’agressió militar de l’Azerbaidjan a la República d’Artsakh i la col·laboració de Turquia"
https://www.aquibergueda.cat/2020/11/05/lajuntament-de-berga-condemna-lagressio-militar-dazerbaidjan-a-la-republica-dartsakh-i-la-col%c2%b7laboracio-de-turquia/#disqus_thread
https://news.am/arm/news/611762.html
9:02 Artsakh govt: Azeri army bombed Shushi and Stepanakert all night. Three civilians were killed; two brothers and their grandma. Several buildings caught fire in Shushi. Some destruction in Stepanakert.
Destruction video: https://youtu.be/wSQg59cwyy4
Video: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034108.html
https://t.me/infocomm/25548 , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034120.html
9:18 System of a Down's Serj Tankian: "We as SOAD have just released new music for the first time in 15 years. The time to do this is now, as together, the four of us have something extremely important to say as a unified voice. Read our full statement at www.SystemOfADown.bandcamp.com"
The tracks are titled "Protect The Land" and "Genocidal Humonoidz".
Protect the Land: https://youtu.be/XqmknZNg1yw
https://twitter.com/serjtankian/status/1324579578073939968?s=21
Rolling Stones wrote an article about the return of SOAD and why they did so now.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034141.html
9:56: the Ukrainian-Armenian community has sent 100 tons of humanitarian aid yesterday. Another 40 tons on its way. They're helping 100 Artsakh families with housing and 2,500 people with food and necessities.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034097.html
10:19: Vanetsyan's "Hayreniq" party volunteers are also in front lines. A few of them received non-life-threatening shrapnel/bullet wounds. The group dismissed "fake news by Azerbaijan about the 'destruction' of our group."
https://news.am/arm/news/611787.html , https://news.am/arm/news/611849.html ,
Speaking of fake news: Azeri outlets circulated a photo of an Azeri flag hanging from a Mosque and presented it as being in Shushi. The image was not taken in Shushi.
https://news.am/arm/news/611851.html
10:47 army: the battles continued at night. The army conducted effective defensive battles, inflicting heavy military-technical and human losses on the enemy forces in the eastern, southern, and south-western fronts.
Azeris made repeated attempts to attack Shushi but were thwarted. The enemy suffered heavy losses in the south-western part of Berdzor, too.
Army units fully control the operative-tactical situation and take steps to further detect and neutralize enemy forces.
https://factor.am/305794.html
11:20: producer Artavazd Peleshyan donated $15,000 in proceeds from the "Nature" movie premiere in France
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034109.html
11:37 (video): Azerbaijan lost a large number of vehicles and personnel while trying to attack Berdzor (Lachin). Armenian drone footage shows a destroyed convoy of vehicles that were attempting to move through forests and gorges. The video shows 1 T-72B tank, 5 BMP-2, 4 MRAP Matador, 1 Sandcat, 1 transport vehicle Kamaz, 1 unidentified vehicle.
Video: https://youtu.be/8mYEBWFHl18
Video: https://m.facebook.com/artsakhdefencearmy/videos/496310371329276/
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034113.html , https://t.me/anna_news/9414
12:11: a group of Russian-Armenian doctors took a "vacation" to visit Armenia for help.
https://news.am/arm/news/611806.html
12:20: there are also those who have to deliver food and water to soldiers in dangerous front lines. Yeremyan Projects handles the southern front. Soldiers are now very well familiar with their blue 7KG bags filled with basic necessities.
Breakfast, condensed milk, honey, butter, lunch soup, canned food, sausages, cheese, water, bread, coffee, sweets, fruits, tobacco, food heaters, etc.
This supplier delivers 80 tons of food per day to the main base, followed by small deliveries to positions. CEO Davit Yeremyan is in Artsakh and helps with evacuating wounded soldiers.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034117.html
Someone earlier claimed soldiers don't get enough food. Soldiers released video from the front line showing their table and inviting everyone to join. [IT'S A BAIT, YO]
https://youtu.be/aNdxTX86OD0
12:25: a photo was circulated showing a group of Azeri soldiers using a civilian flight to travel from Nakhijevan to Azerbaijan. "This fact should be of serious concern to foreign airlines. It may be more reasonable for them to temporarily suspend flights through Azerbaijan for security reasons," said some experts.
https://news.am/arm/news/611809.html
12:26 Russian Foreign Intelligence chief Narishkin: we have accurate data about the transfer of Middle Eastern militants to Karabakh, including thanks to cooperation with local (Syrian) intelligence colleagues.
Turkish intelligence services are taking part in the Karabakh conflict. Russia's foreign intelligence service feels it, sees certain elements of its work. [Is this the first time Russia officially recognizes Turkey's direct involvement?]
https://youtu.be/q_b7pymK9Wo
https://ria.ru/20201106/karabakh-1583330809.html
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034118.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034126.html
13:09: clergyman sings Ter Voghormyan in Shushi church while the sounds of artillery are heard from a few kilometers away.
https://youtu.be/ZgHbHK3elas
13:30: Turkish TRT outlet has fired the reporter Mehmet Qaraja who accidentally reported the truth yesterday by placing a TV banner that read "Azerbaijan is targeting civilians" ( Azerbaycan sivillere saldiriyor). Mehmet issued an apology.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034128.html
13:32: Armenians demonstrated in front of the Tel-Aviv municipality building. They want the suspension of arms supplies to Azerbaijan because they're used against civilians.
https://youtu.be/OBiwzxEqd0A , https://news.am/arm/news/611819.html
13:36 army: around 11:30 we shot an Azeri drone in the south.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034129.html
14:05: "These rains were a great help to our forests burned by the enemy," said chief meteorologist Surenyan. Some 2,000 hectares of Artsakh/Armenian forests were intentionally burned by Azerbaijan.
https://news.am/arm/news/611829.html , https://news.am/arm/news/611877.html
14:29: CIS Republics Council meeting took place. The Armenian delegation highlighted Azerbaijan's war crimes and the recruitment of terrorists in Artsakh.
Azeri delegation said "Comprehensive development of cooperation in CIS is impossible for as long as Karabakh conflict is unresolved. "
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034133.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034142.html
14:58: shoemakers Arli and other volunteers prepare waterproof boots for soldiers:
https://youtu.be/iC0ugAnPqsE
15:03: Greek city Didymoteicho approved a resolution to express solidarity with Armenians and to condemn the Azeri-Turkish aggression.
https://news.am/arm/news/611841.html
15:16: the Basque city of San Sebastian approved a resolution condemning Azerbaijan's aggression and expressing solidarity with Armenians.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034143.html
15:40: Assyrians living in Sweden are preparing another round of aid for Artsakh. The ADFA (Assyrian/Syriac/Chaldean) organization prepared warm clothes for winter.
"These days, the Assyrians from around the world stand by the Armenian people. This is not the first ADFA initiative. 1,500 Artsakh families in Armenia were provided with basic foodstuffs," said Anahit Khosroyeva, an Assyrian activist from Armenia.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034150.html
1⁵:45: open-air concerts will take place near St. Anna and Sr. Katoghike churches on Sunday. The proceeds go to 1000plus.am (soldier's medical therapy).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034152.html
16:23: video about the soldiers who are defending village Taghavard in the central front:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&time_continue=194&v=_WFDN8a9zxY
16:44 Belgian MP Ellen Samin: We'll continue to ask the Belgian government to recognize the independence of Artsakh.
Full interview: https://news.am/arm/news/611865.html
16:45: u like wine? 22 winemakers are inviting you to taste some on November 15th in Verev restaurant. The proceeds will be donated to Himnadram.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034158.html
17:27: just ignore this video. It's an Armenian man, who had just captured Azeri vehicles, saying some nasty stuff to Ilham Aliyev in Azeri language:
https://t.me/infoteka24/11024
17:25 QP MP Alen to TASS media: we're ready to organize a meeting between any ambassador and the two captured Syrian jihadists. Militants' presence in this conflict is undeniable.
17:44: Pashinyan met the departing Italian ambassador and thanked him for the work. They discussed Artsakh.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034168.html , https://factor.am/306046.html
17:31: doctor Armen Bdoyan receives the "Tigran Mets" award for his duties.
https://news.am/arm/news/611876.html
17:56: a female deputy commander of one of the reconnaissance groups returned from the battlefield and finally met her 1-year-old son.
Video: https://youtu.be/4pCCNiwW8Vs
17:59 army: the battles continue near Shushi.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034173.html
18:04: French company BERINGER AERO will also suspend the sales of tech components to Turkey after learning that they were used in military Bayraktar drones. "The company adheres to its policy and has never allowed the use of its products in a way that could be life-threatening."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034174.html
18:05: Bellator MMA fighter Georgi Karakhanyan dedicated his victory to Artsakh and waved the tri-color. "Artsakh is ours. It's for all Armenians."
https://sport.news.am/arm/news/116388/
18:16: the Parliament of a major Uruguayan province Paysandú has unanimously recognized the independence of the Artsakh Republic.
https://news.am/arm/news/611884.html
18:27: Civilian infrastructure of Stepanakert and Shushi were bombed again. Illegal cluster bombs were also used. Large damage was done to an archaeological camp near Tigranocerta ancient city.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034175.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034181.html
18:31: in addition to the two captured Syrian militants, three more have an arrest warrant in-absentia, after the Armenian prosecutors learned their personal details [photos inside] and their specifics activates in Artsakh.
Have you seen Abu Stef al-Hindawi, Ahmad al-Tayeb, and Abu Diab al-Halabi? The suspects are armed and dangerous. Call 1-800-gyorbagyor immediately.
Later, NSS announced the identification of 20 more militants [photos in link] hired and paid by Turkey. Their details were given to international law enforcement institutes to launch an international manhunt. NSS is working with allied countries to get more details on these jihadists.
Video: https://youtu.be/FnT0cU4LrxM
https://factor.am/306123.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034195.html
18:40: a group of 10 female soldiers have finished the training and are ready for deployment. The unit is named after Armenian queen Erato (1 B.C, Artashes Dynasty). First lady Anna Hakobyan is among them.
https://factor.am/306131.html , https://a1plus.am/hy/article/384757
18:47 army: Azerbaijan has lost 7405 soldiers, 736 tanks and armored vehicles, 257 drones, 6 TOS, 25 aircrafts, 16 helicopters.
https://factor.am/306153.html
18:48 army spokesman Artsrun: the Qarin Tak [a suburb of Shushi] defenders proved that they are heroes. They are the new Zeytuntsis [defenders during 1915 genocide]. We will win thanks to people like you.
https://factor.am/306163.html
19:41: another group of 71 Azeri soldiers were identified as deceased by non-official sources. (36 similar groups in this Twitter account).
https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1324730687107289089?s=20
20:14 army: this is commander Qajik Arshakyan. He used his tank to shoot 4 enemy tanks:
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034187.html
20:24: PACE held a session about Migration, Refugees and Displaced Persons. Armenian delegate BHK Naira presented the Artsakh conflict, humanitarian crisis, Azerbaijan's use of phosphorus bomb, and various terrorist activities.
https://news.am/arm/news/611909.html
20:44: grandmasters Levon Aronyan and Manuel Petrosyan invite you to watch chess at 13:00 in Charles Aznavour Square on November 8th. They'll play against 20 kids from Artsakh. Simultaneously, Aronyan's mother Seda Aronova will sign and sell books. All proceeds go to www.HimnaDram.org
https://sport.news.am/arm/news/116400/
20:54: Abkhaz-Armenian "Hamshen" volunteers are traveling to Artsakh to join the army. "Every ethnic Armenian has the right to defend his homeland," said Abkhaz President's aide.
Photo: https://news.am/arm/news/611912.html
21:09: per existing law, the IRS deducts 1,000 Drams from each paycheck to help soldiers (hence the website named 1000plus.am). The Defense Ministry drafted a bill to raise it to 3,000.
BHK party, and a prominent QP MP, proposed a progressive taxation bracket. BHK wants 1k for those earning <150k, and gradually increase up to 6k for those earning >1m.
https://news.am/arm/news/611914.html , https://factor.am/306101.html
19:40: interview with Russian "grandma Katya" who lives in Stepanakert:
https://youtu.be/ZSzO49rdibg
21:02 Russian ANNA reporter: I just returned from Shushi. There are serious battles there. Finally, the Artsakh army brought a tank to the battle. That means they have the air covered. Just a week ago you couldn't even imagine this. It would have been destroyed within half an hour. Now, these square boxes move forward and shoot at the enemy.
That means Azerbaijan's technological advantage is weaning off. The Armenian soldiers have higher morale because the drones don't buzz 24/7 anymore. Now they can prepare a plan of action.
https://t.me/anna_news/9421
22:00 army spokesman Artsrun's briefing: there have been nonstop battles near Shushi for two days now. Yesterday and today, the battles were quite intense in these areas. If May 8, 1992, is known in our history as the liberation of Shushi, then these days will enter in our history as the brilliant Shushi Defense Day.
Operation Gyorbagyor to destroy Azeri and terrorist infiltrator units successfully continues. Today, our artillery, infantry, and other units did miracles. The enemy left behind dozens, if not hundreds, of bodies in the gorges. Soon we'll publish videos and photos. The battles continue right now but they are milder.
The infiltrators near Shushi roads were destroyed also by armed defense units consisted of Qarin Tak residents. Further south-east of Shushi, Azeri troops attempted to bring reinforcement towards Shushi, but were detected and destroyed by defense forces of nearby Armenian settlements.
Today was a day of the heroic defense of Shushi. Shushi is ours. Shushi will not fall no matter how much Aliyev hopes to have it. Be confident that the Armenian army will fight until the end. Shushi won't fall.
Other fronts were relatively calmer today.
Q: today Russian intelligence head Naryshkin mentioned Turkey's support of Azerbaijan. What's the scale?
A: the entire Turkish army apparatus works to help Azerbaijan. Not just one segment of the Turkish army. Intelligence, technical aid, commanders, etc. Azeri army command no longer exists. There is a Turkish general command unit that controls Azeri and jihadist troops.
Q: how hard were the battles near Shushi?
A: Hard. Today I spoke with Shushi defenders and they made it clear that our artillery has never worked as brilliantly as today. It is a fact that our artillery defeated the Azeri artillery today. The defense of Shushi continues. I can't say that harder day will never come, but we came out with honor today. The situation has changed.
Q: Azeri govt blocked social media/info from day one. Lately, there has been dissatisfaction among Azeri users after they began seeing the death toll and the photos of their shahids (martyrs). What will happen if the media blockade ends?
A: Regardless of whether the media blockade is lifted or not, the dissatisfaction and subsequent action won't take long to arrive. I assure you.
Q: what's the situation in Hadrut?
A: As I've said before, the battles continue in Hadrut and nearby villages. The enemy troops tried every attempt, especially with the use of highways, to reach Shushi, but were destroyed in every gorge. The video that we showed today [an entire convoy of destroyed Azeri troops and vehicles] is just one example. There are much more horrific scenes. We'll film and show.
The war continues. The struggle is hard. This is our fight for survival. Fill yourself with confidence and trust our army, they will win.
https://youtu.be/4XHttaux5AY
23:22: a Lithuanian ad agency took down anti-Armenian ads in Riga purchased by Azerbaijan, after the Armenian embassy's intervention.
https://www.facebook.com/visualmedia.lv/posts/1281854398858658 , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034199.html
23:41: the legislative Assembly of French Corsica has officially recognized Artsakh's independence, citing Azeri-Turkish violation of Geneva Conventions. The Assembly urges all UN nations to recognize Artsakh.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034200.html

movement against the Turkish "Grey Wolves" terrorist movement

German Parliament MP Sevin Dagdelen (Kurdish) has urged the government to follow France's example and ban the Turkish extremist group "Grey Wolves" and its German arm called ADÜTDF. The latter is known to cause provocations with Greeks, Armenians, and other minorities living in Germany.
"In Turkey, the Gray Wolves, along with the ruling coalition partner of the right-wing Turkish Nationalist Movement, have close ties to the circle of terrorist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There should be zero tolerance for Islamist-fascist organizations in our country," said the German MP.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034139.html
Kommersant article: France is convinced that Erdogan's reproaches to Paris have led to terrorism and unrest in France and Austria. As a result, France banned the Turkish ultra-nationalist Grey Wolves (GW) group. They discovered a GW training camp in France. On the internet, the members of GW incite hatred and violence against Armenians and Kurds living in France.
Armenian monuments were defaced in Lyon with RTE (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) and other GW slogans. Turkey still denies the existence of the GW movement.
The denial is the normal practice there. They denied shooting our [Russian] jet in 2015, while our ambassador Oleg Peshkov was assassinated by a GW member.
Western and Arab media has repeatedly mentioned the use of GW cells in Europe by Turkish special services. It has 200,000 members today. Founded in the 1960s, the GW members have assassinated numerous left-wing politicians and journalists.
GW was banned in Turkey after the 1980 coup. Many members moved to Europe and formed cells in Germany, the Netherlands, and France. In 1981, GW member Mehmed Ali Aghja attempted to assassinate Pope John Paul ii.
GW has never been independent. They've always been tied to the Turkish national movement political party, which allies itself with Erdogan's ruling AKP party. Without this alliance, Erdogan could not have won the 2017 elections.
https://news.am/arm/news/611804.html
A threat to French-Armenians is a threat to all of France, said the French ambassador Jonathan Lacote and shared a photo of French police guarding an Armenian school in France.
https://t.me/infoteka24/10954

other regional kerfuffle

Two Turkish officials will continue to remain under European sanctions for another year, over Turkey's illegal activities in Eastern Mediterranean seas. The EU is considering more sanctions.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034157.html
Turkish opposition MP: Erdogan told the public to boycott French products, but does the public even have the means to purchase the products? People can't even buy bread.
https://t.me/infoteka24/10976
Erdogan's regime has arrested 26 teachers in predominantly Kurdish Diyarbakir city (aka Tigranakert) for having participated in pro-democracy activities and writing wrongthink comments on the internet.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034188.html

COVID stats

+5,202 tested. +2,210 infected. +1,647 healed. +30 deaths. 38,088 active.
https://factor.am/305802.html

agriculture & loans

Economy Minister Tigran: The total volume of subsidized agricultural loans provided by the government is 100B drams. Most of them are 3-15M loans.
Due to this year's pandemic, we introduced a new 1M Dram subsidized micro-loan. These played a big role in keeping economic activity in the agricultural industry.
Before the pandemic, there were 7B in loans. Then the COVID-aid loans were introduced, bringing total loans to 50B, from which 13B are the micro-loan.
The grape harvest was 30% bigger this year. The gross agricultural outpost is expected to rise this year. Despite the pandemic, there is a 0.5% growth.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034115.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034119.html

elevator refresh process continues

Yerevan continues to replace the Soviet-era elevators in residential high-rise buildings, be it private or public. 318 done. 182 more expected by the end of this year.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1034145.html

Sports news

Roma's midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan is declared the best player of the Roma vs Cluj match. He scored the Europa League tournament's fastest goal.
https://sport.news.am/arm/news/116368/

How to help Artsakh & Armenia

www.1000plus.am (international, medical help for former soldiers)
www.HimnaDram.org (international, for Artsakh)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible, for Artsakh)
 
Prior events:
Nov 5, Nov 4, Nov 3, Nov 2, Nov 1, October 31, October 30, October 29, October 28, October 27, October 26, October 25, October 24, October 23, October 22, October 21, October 20, October 19, October 18, October 17, October 16, October 15, October 14, October 13, October 12, October 11 , October 10, October 9 , October 8, October 7,October 6, October 5, October 4, October 3, October 2, October 1, September 30, September 29, September 28, September 27
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2020.11.03 17:17 Aglia MSO Deep Dive 1: The Case for Cresco and (Cresco Warrants)

Aglia back in action bringing you a few deep dive’s on the MSO space.
Compiling some DD here as a resource. Which I’ll be adding to as people send me more info on the companies.
I’ll be (Eventually) covering:
But this post will focus on Cresco Labs.
And before I start, know that I’m not covering the exact product offerings, brands or the fine details there. For that, here is an unreal resource to check out: Haywood Report on Cresco
Disclaimer:
I believe in all 4 of the top MSO’s pretty well equally. And I’m not pinning one against the others. Just going to provide info here so you can make your own decisions.
TL/DR: Might want to considerCresco Warrants for a 4:1 Leverage.
ALRIGHT... Lets get to it.
Crescos model:
Vertically integrated with a unique focus on Wholesale. They are the LARGEST MSO wholesaler in the states.

Footprint:

19 Retail Locations across 9 States
Licesnsed to open an additional 10 retail locations atm.
Bolded states are where Cresco has the lead market share. ( Illinois and Pennsylvania)

State Rec / Med Population Retail Locations Total Cap / Licenses Already Granted
California Rec 37.3 Mil / No Limit
New York Med 19.4 Mil 4 4/4 (Max)
Illinois Rec 12.8 Mil 9 10 / 10 (Max)
Pennsylvania Med 12.7 Mil 3 6 / 15
Ohio Med 11.54 Mil 1 (4 more when it’s Verdant Transaction closes) 5 / 5
Michigan Rec 9.9 Mil / No Limit
Massachusetts Rec 6.6 Mil 1 3/3
Arizona Med 6.4 Mil 1 No Limit
Maryland Med 5.7 Mil / 0/4
Source

Quick Examination of each state:
California
Cultivation facility with cap up to 650,000 sq ft of Greenhouse.
Currently operating it’s 166,000 Sq ft for manufacture AND distribution in Fresno County.
Licensed for cultivation, manufacturing and distribution in Santa Barbara.
New York
Holder of 1 of 10 vertically integrated licenses in New York State.
Currently has the processing facility open along with 4 sunny side locations.
Illinois
Cresco’s bread and butter. Market Leader here.
3X cultivation and manufacturing facilities with 215,000 Sq ft.
Approved for up to 630,000 sq ft.
Has 5 medical / adult use locations and 4 current rec only locations (1 more will be completed in 2020)
Pennsylvania
Medical State, has Wold pushing for Rec though. Cresco is a leader here.
Cap of only 25 Processing and Cultivation Licenses.
Has a medical / cultivation license and 3 dispensaries open. (First dispensary in the state)
Cresco has been awarded 3 more dispensary licenses to be opened in the near future.
Approved to increases their total cultivation space from 22,000sq ft to 88,000 sq ft.
Ohio
50,000 sq ft cultivating and processing facility
Has 1 current Dispensary (first in the State)
Waiting for Verdant Creation acquisition to come through which will give them 4 already operational dispensaries here.
Michigan
100,000 Sq Ft for processing, and upon renovations, processing as well.
Has medical and adult use licenses for processing.
Massachusetts
Cultivation, processing and a 1 dispensary.
18,000 Sq ft but it is currently expanding to be 50,000 sq ft.
Arizona
94,000 Sq ft f cultivation and processing.
1 Dispensary.
Maryland
Has 1 Processing Center
Very high barriers to entry.
Only 1 Cultivation license allowed as a CAP and 4 Retail dispensary licenses. Per Company.

THE NUMBERS:

Alright here’s the good stuff. If you hate reading and DD then just skip to here.
I’m just going to use a couple of examples and you can extrapolate the rest.

First off, QoQ, the market is doing nothing but growing. Cresco slayed an impressive 42% QoQ top line growth. up to 94.4 Million. All of their states jumped by over 30% (Other than Massachusetts who shut down Weed for the beginning of covid)

So WHY is Cresco going to dominate in these next financial reports?
Well lets take Illinois as our prime example.
Q2 had sales from April-June 30th.
Take a look at the sales from July, Aug, Sept since then. Which will be reported on in this Q3 Report...
HERE: Illinois Monthly Cannabis Sales
Okay, now lets add in the fact that during Q2 Massachusetts had a pause on marijuana sales for 80% of their quarter. And since it has reopened its been increasing like crazy. Check out the stats:
Massachusetts Stats

Alright, now I’m not going to get into any more details as you can pick through financials and can see that the big 4 MSO’s are going to be growing in a big way in the near future.

BUT... Lets talk about projected numbers. Using HORRIFICALLY SLOPPY NAPKIN MATH.
Ya, the good greasy stuff. Don’t you dare fking judge me.
I’m not trying to say these numbers are exact. I’m trying to say Share price will go UP. Thats all. Just UP. Meaning you make more. That’s what were all here for. You can do the exact calls on your own if you want.

Okay, so lets get it it:
Cresco’s Market Cap right now is : 3.7 Billion CAD.
(377.3M Shares X $10.00 CAD)

If we see a Quarter of 130M (USD), we can project that in 2021 Cresco can earn 600-700 MIL USD.
Lets get that baby rounded up to 1 Billion CAD. (Might be 2021, might be 2022 doesnt matter really). I Like CAD because im Canadian and Im comparing some stuff to the LP run in Canada.

Alright, now the big names like Canopy, ACB, Cron, etc all hit extreme market caps during the rush.
Canopy hit over 25 BILLION CAD for gods sakes. And guess what that was at a time when they made 160 Million PER YEAR! Cresco is doing that per Quarter right now. In a Federally Illegal Market.
Alright, so lets just say we bump up to a 20X EV/Rev. I know, crazy right. But the Canadian LP’s did wayyyyy more than that!
On that 20x Multiple, Cresco at 1 bil. year is 20 Bil Market Cap.
20 Bil / 377 Mil = $53 per share.
Or for you pessimist paully's lets try a 10x Multiple its $26.50 a share. Happy?

NOW
With Spectacular finish I present you....
CRESCO WARRANTS BABY.
$12.50 Strike price in June 2022.
Trading at about $3.00 right now.
They give 4X multiple leverage.

Lets say Cresco hits that sweet 10 Bil Market Cap?
Warrants will be (26.50 - 12.50) = $14 + Time premium.

If Cresco hits 20Bil Market Cap
Warrants will be ($53-12.50) = $40.50

Okay I rushed this ending. But you get the point.
Cresco is going to fly.
And warrants will give you 4x leverage on that.

Cresco Warrants Here
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